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Market Comments July 15, 2011 Current TSP Share Prices Twitter

Today's Commentary

Bull flag - do or die Yesterday we saw more early gains tease investors as the sellers showed up again after Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke basically said QE3 is not going to happen.  The Dow lost 54-points.            For the TSP, the C-fund fell 0.67% yesterday, the S-fund dropped 1.335%, the I-fund lost 0.76%, and the F-fund (bonds) gave up 0.19%.  The stalemate in the debt ceiling negotiations continued, but I think it is more about the debt in Europe right now, and the weak economic data here in the U.S.  The recent Europe / economy jitters in the market over the last several weeks may have priced in the debt issues.  What happens on August 2nd, the apparent deadline to raise the debt ceiling, I don't know.  But for  now I think the market will focus more on the coming earnings reports.  Google posted a huge quarter yesterday after the bell and the stock was up nearly $70 a share (about 13%) in after hours trading.  That could trigger some optimism for the earnings season going forward although with Google being mainly an advertising company, I don't know what other type of stocks would benefit.  Perhaps Internet companies. The S&P 500 dipped below the key support levels we have been watching, and that is a concern.  I'd like to give it the minimum 3-day rule if it can remain in the vicinity of 1300.  Any lower and the bull flag that has developed may be thwarted.                                                  Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk The Nasdaq has also formed a nice big bull flag.  It remained above the 50-day EMA and the recent rising trend line, but it is running out of room.                                                  Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk The TSP Talk Sentiment Survey came in at 34% bulls, 52% bears, for a bulls to bears ratio of 0.65 to 1. That is a fresh new buy signal so the system's allocation remains 100% S-Fund for next week. The system is up 7.28% for 2011 through Thursday's close. Today is the 10th trading day in July.  Historically we get a little "sell the news" reaction to the earnings reports this time of the month, but that is usually preceded by some "buy the rumor" action but we didn't really see that in the last week.  Perhaps we will get a "sell the rumor", "buy the news" reaction this July? Thanks for reading!   Have a great weekend! Tom Crowley Click here to discuss today's Market Commentary

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