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Another
reversal
Stocks opened to the downside yesterday, following through on Wednesday's
post-Fed sell-off, but things turned around and we saw a nice reversal to
the upside. The Dow had been down well over 200-points in the morning but
closed down just 60.

The Nasdaq was down over 40-points early on, but led the way higher and
actually closed up 17.56, or 0.7%. Both of the market leaders (Nasdaq
and the Dow Transportation Index) closed higher.

For the TSP, the C-fund was down 0.28% yesterday, the S-fund
gained 0.15%, the I-fund
lost 1.15%, and the F-fund (bonds) was up 0.27%.
This was the second consecutive reversal day for the major indices;
Wednesday's was negative, and yesterday's was positive. We saw the
200-day EMA act as support once again but the S&P has to overtake the 50-day
EMA, and the descending resistance line, or it will remain in no-man's land
waiting for the next leg - up or down. There is a lot of uncertainty
out there.

Chart provided courtesy of
www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Volume picked up, which is a good thing to see during a reversal, and the
Dow Transportation Index was able to close above the 20 and 50-day EMA's
after falling below them in the early trading.

Chart provided courtesy of
www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
We have sentiment indicators that tell us that a rally is due, but we have
seen that for weeks. The charts look bad but the 200-day EMA is
holding. You hate to be selling stocks if the the 200-day EMA is going
to be the bottom of this pullback, but we also want to see some of the
descending trend lines broken on the upside before embracing a bottom.
The
TSP Talk Sentiment Survey came in at
31% bulls, 59% bears, for a bulls to bears ratio of 0.53 to 1. That is a
buy signal so the system's allocation remains 100% S-Fund for
next week. The system is up 4.95% for 2011 through Thursday's close.
Thanks for reading! Have a great weekend!
Click here to discuss today's Market Commentary
Tom Crowley
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