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Market Comments June 17, 2011 Current TSP Share Prices Twitter

Today's Commentary

A strong close? After an early rally, the market did its usual afternoon dive, but we finally saw a last hour rally yesterday.  I had forgotten what it was like to see the market rally into the close.  The Dow gained 64-points on the day, but other indices didn't fare as well.                                     For the TSP, the C-fund added 0.19% yesterday, the S-fund slipped 0.05%, the I-fund gave up 0.44%, and the F-fund (bonds) was up 0.10%.  The S&P 500 closed above the 200-day EMA again, but we also saw another lower low.  Without a 4-point gain today, we will be looking at a seventh consecutive week of losses for the S&P.                                                  Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk We finally saw a spike in the VIX (Volatility Index) yesterday.  It had remained below 20% for 57 days before moving above it this week.                                                    Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk SentimenTrader.com went back to 1986 looking for every other time the VIX stayed below 20% for at least 50 trading days, then poked above that level, and see how the S&P fared going forward:                                                                       Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com After the next 50 trading days, the S&P 500 was higher 92% of the time with an median gain of 5%.  The TSP Talk Sentiment Survey came in at 33% bulls, 56% bears, for a bulls to bears ratio of 0.59 to 1.  That is a buy signal so the system's allocation remains 100% S-Fund for next week.  The system is up 2.% for 2011 through Thursday's close. Thanks for reading!   Have a great weekend!   Click here to discuss today's Market Commentary Tom Crowley

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