TSP Talk

Market Comments

TSP Tracker

Premiums

Site Map

TSP Funds

Message Board

Returns

Market Comments June 10, 2011 Current TSP Share Prices Twitter

Today's Commentary

Bounce After 6 consecutive down days, the market finally experienced a relief rally.  The close was not all that exciting as the Dow finished up 75-points after being up 135 less than an hour before the close, but the bulls won't complain.               For the TSP, the C-fund was up 0.74% yesterday, the S-fund gained 0.55%, the I-fund added 0.16%, and the F-fund (bonds) slid 0.20%. The rally in the S&P 500 found resistance in the area where the April low and the recent short-term descending trading channel support line meet.  Not a great sign, but the index will get another chance today to try to break back above this resistance.                                                  Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk You probably recall the inverted head and shoulders pattern I talked about for what seemed like weeks back in April and May.  We talked about the two most common outcomes for an inverted H&S pattern, with the most bullish being a breakout above the neckline, followed by a pullback test of the neckline, then a resumed rally....                                             And here is what we got through May 10.  It seemed like a no brainer bullish continuation pattern...                                                  Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk The other common outcome we talked about is to see a test of the middle of the head on the inverted H&S.                                     And right now the S&P 500 is testing the middle of the head....                                                  Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk Is this a sign that the pullback is over?  Perhaps.  We have been focused on the 200-day EMA, which if you recall coincided with a longer-term support line near 1260, but this is as good of a technical analysis reason as any for the market to find support here. The TSP Talk Sentiment Survey came in at 41% bulls, 48% bears, for a bulls to bears ratio of 0.85 to 1.  That is a buy signal so the system's allocation remains 100% S-Fund for next week.  The system is up 4.26% for 2011 through Thursday's close. As far as seasonality goes, we know June has been very poor over the last several years, but there is a stronger stretch historically from trading day #8 through day #15.   Today is trading day #8 in June. Thanks for reading!  Have a great weekend!   Click here to discuss today's Market Commentary Tom Crowley

TSP Talk does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report, nor does TSPtalk.com assume any liability for any loss that may result from reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Such information and opinions are subject to change without notice and are for general information only.  The information contained on this website is for educational purposes only and not intended to be recommendations, and may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or otherwise distributed without prior written consent from TSPtalk.com.