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Today's Commentary
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Investors nervous again
Stocks moved modestly lower yesterday, but closed well off the mid-day lows.
The 7.1 earthquake in Japan yesterday sent the indices reeling during the
morning trading but the Dow closed down just 17-points.

For the TSP, the C-fund fell 0.15% yesterday, the S-fund lost 0.51%, the I-fund
dropped 0.32%, and the F-fund (bonds) added 0.03%.
The S&P 500 is on pause taking a needed rest.
There is resistance above and the 20-day EMA was nearly tested yesterday.
A test of the 20-day EMA may be all that this market needs to regain the
energy to breakout to new highs. The one-week consolidation has
investors nervous again, and that may be key to a possible breakout next
week.

Chart provided courtesy of
www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Oil is now above $110 and this is getting very concerning. Stocks have
stalled with oil up this high and whether it is related, I don't know since
the stock market needed a break anyway. But how high can oil go before
stocks say 'no mas'?

Chart provided courtesy of
www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Surprisingly,
the
TSP Talk Sentiment Survey
moved back to a buy signal just one week after the first sell signal of the
year. The 1.07 to 1 bulls (44%)
to bears (41%) ratio is below the 1.25 buy level so the system's allocation moves from 100%
G-Fund to 100%
S-Fund, for next week.

The kids are on spring break, I'm going out of town this morning, and I am
ready to start my weekend so I am going to cut this short today.
Thanks for reading! Have a great weekend.
Click here to discuss today's Market Commentary
Tom Crowley
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