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Market Comments

April 29, 2011

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Today's Commentary           Not seeing a current commentary?              
Up, up, and away!

Stocks rallied again yesterday as the Dow picked up another 72-points on the day.  The other indices saw more modest gains, but that was 6 of the last 7 days in positive territory for most of them.
 
                                   

For the TSP, the C-fund gained 0.36% yesterday, the S-fund was up 0.27%, the I-fund picked up 0.59%, and the F-fund (bonds) gained 0.26%.  It's interesting that stocks and bonds have both been rising lately.                 

The S&P 500 has now closed above the neckline of the inverted head and shoulders for 3 consecutive days - all but confirming the breakout.  A test of the neckline at some point is a common development of an H&S, and of course there is still a large open gap that we need to keep in the backs of our mind as an eventual target. 

                         
                        Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The dollar has been falling.  The long, short, and intermediate-term trends are down and this is helping to keep commodities and stock prices moving higher.

                        

                        Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

If the dollar can find a little support at the bottom of it descending trading range, it could produce that test of the neckline of the S&P, and possibly fill that gap, but in a bull market we should expect bullish results.

The TSP Talk Sentiment Survey gave a neutral reading this week and the 1.83 to 1 bulls (55%) to bears (30%) ratio will keep the system's allocation at 100% S-fund for next week.

Thanks for reading!  Have a great weekend!
 

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Tom Crowley


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