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Today's Commentary           Not seeing a current commentary?

Bulls need follow-through Stocks opened lower yesterday but buyers stepped up and we saw a triple digit loss in the Dow turn into a small gain.  But the indices will need some follow-through to the upside to break this recent short-term downtrend.                                   For the TSP, the C-fund ticked up 0.01% yesterday, the S-fund gained 0.21%, the I-fund was down 0.32%, and the F-fund (bonds) was off 0.08%.  The S&P 500 dropped below the 50-day EMA and it put a bit of a scare in me as I don't want to see this index trading below that level again.  The push below it in March was driven by news events (Japan, Libya, etc.) and it was quickly able to regain that EMA, but if we start seeing the S&P move below the 50 again, it would likely mean a test of the March lows is coming. The fact that buyers stepped up and took the index back above the 50 is a good sign for now.                                                   Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk A wider view of the S&P 500 shows that there is room on the downside before testing the longer-term ascending trading channel, and you can see that if we do test the March lows again, that trend would be broken.                                                  Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk Another issue is the PMO indicator (Price Momentum Oscillator) crossed below its 10-day EMA and that can be an intermediate-term sell signal if it holds for more than a couple of days. The small cap stocks of the Russell 2000 have been hit hard lately, but they outperformed yesterday bouncing off of its 50-day EMA, but it will need some follow-through today to break the downtrend.  I don't like the fact that there is an open gap down below 800.  That concerns me that we could eventually test those March lows.                                                   Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk The TSP Talk Sentiment Survey gave another buy signal this week (for next week).                              The 1.10 to 1 bulls (45%) to bears (41%) ratio is low enough to not only keep the system's allocation at 100% S-fund for next week, but it is a new buy signal if anyone missed last week's buy signal. Thanks for reading!  Have a great weekend! Click here to discuss today's Market Commentary Tom Crowley

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