For the TSP, the C-fund lost 0.40% on Friday, the S-fund fell 0.77%, the I-fund gained 1.36%, and the F-fund (bonds) slipped 0.03%.  For more on the weekly and monthly returns, please see our TSP Weekly Wrap-Up.

You can see that the I-fund did much better than the U.S. stock funds, gaining 1.36% on the day.  That is a result of the U.S. indices being flat around the time the European markets closed on Friday, and the dollar falling 1.0% on the day.  

                        
                        Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The S&P 500 is showing some mixed signals.  In the short-term we are in a pullback, not only because the indices were due for a pullback, but also because of the rising price of oil.

The inverse head and shoulders (H&S) pattern is a bullish formation but they are not always instant gratification patterns.  It is more of an intermediate-term bullish sign. 

The bull flag is more of a short-term bullish pattern, but the flag portion of the pattern may need a little time to form - or not.  The flag could be complete but a move down to the 20-day EMA, which is not far below (10-points), would be a nice place for support, and a nice area to complete that right shoulder (RS) of the inverse H&S.
                         
                        Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The  overhead resistance of the prior high is of course a concern and the recent pullback is no surprise as double tops tend to bring in sellers - at least in the short-term.  Whether it is more than that remains to be seen.  I continue to refer to the large double top of 2007 as a warning...


                        Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The Dow Transportation Index took a big hit last week as it is very sensitive to the price of oil, and as we talked about, the $110 a barrel may put the breaks on stocks, so hitting $113 on Friday did not help.  The 20-day EMA or the 50-day EMA need to hold or we could get a quick answer on whether the S&P 500 will make a new high.  If the EMA's don't hold, the S&P will likely not breakout. 

                         
                        Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

You can see that we have a possible failed breakout in the Transports, so it needs to move back above the February highs within a few days to avoid that label.

Like the other indies, the Nasdaq is also showing a bull flag but could still have room for more consolidation.  Like the S&P 500, the 20-day EMA could be a nice place for the flag to find support.
                        
                        Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

And then there is that chart of the price of oil.  This is as bullish as charts get, and at this level, it is not a good sign for stocks.  There is hope that the middle rising trading channel line could act as resistance, but it is rising quickly as is the support. 

                        
                        Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The TSP Talk Sentiment Survey moved back to a buy signal just one week after the first sell signal of the year.  The 1.07 to 1 bulls (44%) to bears (41%) ratio is below the 1.25 buy level so the system's allocation moves from 100% G-Fund back to 100% S-Fund, for this week.

Thanks for reading!  We'll see you back here tomorrow.