Today's Comments (Short Term Outlook)                             Printer friendly

Another late rally More late day "news" saves the market from a 200-point decline.  These last hour "manipulations", if you will, are becoming the norm and I don't know exactly what to make of it since the market continues on a downtrend despite the positive knee-jerk reactions. RevShark pointed out in his afternoon commentary yesterday that these bond bailout rumors could keep the market afloat, but once it is official, we could see a sell the news reaction again - even if the news is good. Yesterday the S&P 500 fell below the previous closing low of 1310 made in January, during afternoon trading, but managed to close well above it (1326).  The late money is usually considered the "smart money" but these rallies are being triggered by late news/rumor releases from CNBC and this can make things difficult to interpret. Trading volume is starting to pick up again after a mid-February lull, but we are seeing a pattern of lower volume on the rallies, and increased volume on declines.  For us to see a good bottom we will want to see a sell off on 5 or 6 billion shares.  Market bottoms are usually accompanied by high volume capitulations as we saw in August and even January, but January's low was a "V" formation and we want to see that "W" (double bottom) formation to confirm a bottom.  And of course, we'll want to see January's low hold on a closing basis.                                  Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com The market is getting oversold so snapback rallies on any good news is not a surprise.  A little rally up toward the neutral line would seem reasonable here, but we'll see if that brings out the bears again to take things right back down within a few days.                                   Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com Bonds sold-off yesterday helping the AGG (F-fund) fill the gap created by least week's surge higher.  It managed to close above the 50-day moving average and the trend / support is still intact.  I'm not sure I like the look of that lower high forming, but so far there has been no real  technical damage done to the chart.                                         Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com Remember, we get the ISM Services report today, the one that caused a major sell-off in February.  The estimates are for 47.5 to 48.0.  Additionally, we get the all-important jobs report on Friday.  We'll be looking for about 25,000 new jobs being created.  The fun never ends. That's all for today.  Let's meet back here tomorrow.  Have questions?  Visit our message board for answers.  Would you like to be on our email alert list?  We will send you an email when there is a change to our asset allocation or market outlook.  Your email address will never be given out.  Read our privacy policy.  By signing up you agree to the TSP Talk Terms of Service.  More details below **. Are you bullish or bearish?  Join the Weekly Sentiment Survey. Like what you're reading?  Tell a Friend about us.