These are the types
of the days
that I fear
I don't know what will happen today but yesterday was the type of
day I fear the most for our TSP accounts. If you liked the morning
market action yesterday you may have decided you didn't want to sit on
the sidelines any longer. Just before the deadline the market was
looking great so you may have initiated a transfer into the stock fund,
even though you knew the indicators were flashing yellow lights.
It can be frustrating missing out, believe me I know.
The chances of the market crashing are quite slim, but what I fear is
the day and half delay when we get a move AFTER the noon ET deadline.
I talked the other day about how the market can move very quickly in the
first few days of a market turn. Since we have to deal with that
day and a half delay, it makes me nervous to "play" on the long side
with those warning lights flashing, even though those warnings have
failed us for quite some time now.
So the market looks good at noon yesterday, breaking toward new highs
near the deadline, so you make your transfer into stocks and then...
Like I said, I don't know what will happen but if we do see any
significant selling today, you are stuck. At least for another
day. That's not horrible if you have been riding this market up
this whole time, but it would be for someone who jumped in but had been
on the sidelines missing this rally. That is one reason I hate
taking the chance at this stage. I jumped into stocks twice since
Christmas and I was hit both times.
So yesterday's modest pullback has the S&P 500 right back into the
trading range. So was this another fake breakout, or will we just
resume higher from here? Is this setting up another short term
buying opportunity, or is this the start of a warning to get cautious?
Chart provided courtesy of
www.decisionpoint.com
You can see below that the last two days have pulled the short term
overbought condition back into neutral territory. Not quite a buy
signal but not a terrible sign either. It does tell us, however,
that the market is still not capable of moving much higher from
overbought conditions. At the very best stocks are likely to stay
in a choppy environment until it can break that pattern.
Chart provided courtesy of
www.sentimentrader.com
The worst part of yesterday's sell off was the action of the Nasdaq.
There was a little encouragement on Monday when the Nasdaq was one of
the few indices that closed in positive territory. Then Tuesday
morning the Nasdaq was leading the way in the morning rally. But
by the close both the Nasdaq and the Nasdaq 100 were down about 1% each.
The techs disappointed again. Be careful. This usually isn't
a good sign for the broader market.
That's all for today. Currently 100% G fund. Thanks for reading.
See you tomorrow.
Important note: From the TSP.gov website:
http://tsp.gov/curinfo/emailscam.html
E-Mail Scam
Some TSP participants have received an e-mail purporting to be from the
TSP. The e-mail asks for confirmation that the participant has added an
e-mail address to their TSP account. The link in this e-mail takes the
person to a bogus version of the TSP account access screen where it asks
for your Social Security Number and PIN. It then takes you to another
screen where it asks for credit card and banking information.
PLEASE BE ADVISED THAT THE E-MAIL IS NOT AN OFFICIAL THRIFT SAVINGS PLAN
COMMUNICATION!
You should
never give any personal, credit, or banking information in response to
unsolicited e-mails; the TSP would never ask for this
information via an e-mail. If you did provide this information, contact
your credit card company/bank immediately and seek guidance. In
addition, call the TSP and ask to have your account access blocked
(1-877-968-3778).
Do
not try to access the TSP Website by clicking on links in this or any
other e-mail. They are trying to steal your personal
information (always access your account only by opening a new Browser
window, and typing http://www.tsp.gov into the Address/URL field).
The
TSP is actively investigating this matter. In the meantime, it
has temporarily suspended the Account Transactions portion of
Account Access.
RevShark's TSP Timing Newsletter
is now available. You can go to
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TSP Timing is a weekly newsletter giving
subscribers a target allocation determined by professional hedge fund
manager James 'RevShark' DePorre.
Subscribers will navigate the financial seas along side the Rev while he
manages millions of dollars for private investors. Each week he
will highlight TSP funds and a target allocation he believes will
provide the best investment potential. The newsletters will
go over charts of each fund with a technical breakdown of each by RevShark.
The subscription now includes a midweek updates as needed.
The subscription price will
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plus the midweek updates as needed.
The newsletter will be in PDF format so you will need an
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