Today's Comments (Short Term Outlook)                             Printer friendly

No bottom, but maybe a bounce? As red as the indices were on Monday, it wasn't as bad as it could have been.  The Dow actually ended the day in positive territory, but the S&P, Nasdaq, small caps, and international stocks were all hit hard, albeit well off of their lows. The S&P 500 broke below the January low but managed to close above it...                                Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com  The NYSE and Dow have not penetrated those January lows...                                Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com This is a very interesting point for the market.  Almost all of the indicators and charts I watch say we are due for a bounce, but these major financial collapses are rare so we can expect atypical action. Volume is only picking up slightly and it is amazing to me that Joe Sixpack has not capitulated yet.  He is bearish, but there has not been any signs of panic selling.  We saw a little panic in the futures trading Sunday night, but Joe SixPack is not trading futures.  One other sign of a bottom is when financial news makes the top story in your local news, or in other non-financial publications.  We have started seeing that over the last few days.  So, we are seeing some mixed signals but rarely are all the ducks lined up in a row for us.  I am thinking we could see a rally, a rally that may need to be sold, but a playable rally at that.  Not all of our systems and premium services agree with that so I am nervous about my thinking. With the TSP enforcing their transfer limits we do want to think what is going to happen over the next couple of weeks, rather than the next few days so the safe play may be to just stay on the sidelines until the technical picture improves.  But with the S&P 500 trading about 150 points below the 200-day moving average, and about 75 below the 50-day moving average, there is room for a rally. We are not all in the same position so consider your situation when determining how much risk you want to take on. The Fed will be cutting rates today at 2:15 PM ET.  The Fed funds futures are now showing an 86% chance of a 1.00% rate cut, and 14% chance of getting 1.25%.  Others say we don't need another cut at all.  So whatever they do, it should make the reaction quite volatile.   That's all for today.  See you back here tomorrow. If you haven't already, please take a minute to read Stop Trading! as well as the links at the bottom of that page.  It is time to get involved if you haven't already because doing nothing will likely result in the inevitable - a transfer limit and/or restricted transfers.    Have questions?  Visit our message board for answers.  Would you like to be on our email alert list?  We will send you an email when there is a change to our asset allocation or market outlook.  Your email address will never be given out.  Read our privacy policy.  By signing up you agree to the TSP Talk Terms of Service.  More details below **. Are you bullish or bearish?  Join the Weekly Sentiment Survey. Like what you're reading?  Tell a Friend about us.