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The Santa
rally continues
The market opened higher yesterday and held on to the gains into the close
as this Santa rally just keeps rolling along despite several warning signs.
The Dow was up 55-points on the day.
For the
TSP, the C-fund was up 0.62% on Tuesday, the S-fund gained 0.95%, the I-fund
jumped 1.18%, and the F-fund (bonds) added 0.12%.
The S&P 500 has now been up 10 of the last 11 days, and 13 of the last 15.
This is the kind of action you might expect this time of year, but we really
haven't seen it like this for some time.
Chart provided courtesy of
www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP
Talk
The trends remain intact but the indices and the indicators are getting
quite extended. Can the market hang on for another week during the
strongest week of the year historically? It might be tough with the
low volume trading and profits to be taken, but this train has some momentum
and it may not be that easy to stop.
While the S&P is at a two year high, one of the market leaders, the Nasdaq,
has now made a three year high; hitting levels not seen since late 2007.
Chart provided courtesy of
www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP
Talk
The VIX (Volatility Index) has
been floating near the 15 - 16 area, and the complacency is certainly a
concern. The last time we saw readings this low was just prior to the
April peak.
Chart provided courtesy of
www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP
Talk
It has been interesting to see stocks move higher over the last week or so,
while the dollar has also shown strength. This is a positive sign for
stocks, but again the holiday trading does tend to bring out patterns that
are different that what has been the norm. So, I don't know if this is
going to be a new trend or if the negative correlation between the two will
resume after the holidays.
Chart provided courtesy of
www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP
Talk
The SentimenTrader.com's Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence Indicator is at
a new level of "Uh, oh!" That's a proprietary technical term that you
may not read in trading books.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
This
is only the fourth time in the last 15 years that the spread between the
smart and dumb money has hit
50-points.
The trend and momentum is up. The indicators are not.
Thanks for reading! We'll see you tomorrow.
Administrative Note: One of our long time forum members,
Intrepid_Trader, will be starting a new Premium Service here on TSP Talk.
Intrepid developed his own trading system and has had very good success over
the years trading his TSP account, and IRA accounts, and has been
consistently near the top of our
AutoTracker.
We are offering a free trial to the service for the next several weeks.
You just need to create a login and password in the
premium services area (if you
don't already have one.) No payment information is needed. Just
create an account. Sign in, and you will have immediate access to
Interpid Trader's Investment Strategies Reports.
The reports will be available by 10:30 AM ET each morning, but his active
system signals are not always known until 11:00 AM to 11:30 AM ET, so could
see multiple updates on some mornings. Because of this, you may want
to either get into the habit of checking the reports each morning after
11:30 AM ET, and/or sign up for the Intrepid trader
email alerts.
We will send the emails, but unfortunately we can not guarantee that you
will receive them timely as not all mail servers are created equally -
especially your work servers, which are likely putting the emails through
several filters. Tom Crowley
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