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Fund share prices as of: 11/06/07
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Today's Comments (Short Term Outlook)
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Nice bounce, pattern
continues Stocks continue to chop around as Monday's sell-off turned into a Tuesday 1.2% rally. The pattern I have been showing for several days now, is still intact. The right side of what can be described as a reverse head and shoulders pattern, is looking very much like the left side (shoulder) created back in June. 1490 continues to be the area that everyone is watching. Support has been strong but I'm not sure it will be able to pass another test. The obstacles on the upside are 1540 and 1550. While the dance above and below the 20 and 50-day moving averages continues.  Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com If you are trying to time these moves day by day, you are probably either doing very well, or very poorly. It is easy to be whipsawed in a choppy market like this. The constant outside influences on the market have been adding to the day to day fluctuations. So far 3rd quarter earnings have been pretty good. Cisco reports after the close today and that can be a market mover. But the market continues to deal with $97 oil, $820 gold, a dollar that refuses to bounce, and daily troubling news from the financial sector. Most of the indicators I watch are not really giving much of an edge either way. The NYSE overbought/oversold indicator is slightly oversold, but not extreme. The OEX put/call ratio (a smart money indicator) is near neutral. The McClellan Oscillator is basically neutral as well sitting near zero.  Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com If we were able to make transfers later in the day, I might suggest buying into the stock funds on any negative day of 0.50% or more, and sell any 0.50% or higher rally, but because we have to make our transfers by 12:00 noon ET, the reversals could happen before the day is done. All I can say is be careful. The market is vulnerable. As always, buy fear and sell euphoria. I'm not sure we have seen those extreme emotions yet, only because it changes from day to day and the herd hasn't had time to get too extreme. Our Sentiment Survey hit an extreme last week, but I'm not seeing that confirmed in many other psychology type indicators. The Fedsmith has a new TSP Corner article for us called: "Isn't the I Fund a Risky Investment for a Conservative Investor?" That's all for today. See you tomorrow. Attention Premium Service Members: If you paid using PayPal I want to remind you that if your PayPal login email address is different than your premium services email address, your renewal payments will not be credited to your account properly. We use that address to identify you on our system so the two addresses must match exactly. If they don't, please Contact Us with the two addresses so I can update our system. Have questions? Visit our message board for answers.
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