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Today's Commentary (Short Term Outlook)
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Jobs report Friday Stocks rebounded Thursday as the Dow gained 64-points, but the indices are still down sharply for the week with one day of trading to go. Today, the Friday before Labor Day weekend, is historically a strong day for stocks being up about 75% of the time, but with an important jobs report on the agenda, who knows what we can expect? The estimates are for job losses in the neighborhood of 230,000 and 265,000, and an unemployment rate of 9.5%. Expect the market to feed off of any surprises. The S&P 500 moved back up to the 20-day exponential moving average, but stalled there. Still, the fact that the index remains above the 50-day EMA is a sign that we need to keep thinking bull market and buy the dips.  Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk A quick check of the NYSE overbought/oversold indicator shows us that Thursday's rally was able to move it back above the rising support line. Sitting at -31 is a very neutral reading, but with the rising support it could be closer to being oversold - assuming the support holds.  Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk This week's TSP Talk Sentiment Survey came it at 40% bulls, 45% bears for a 0.89 to 1 bulls to bears ratio. That leaves the system on a buy signal for next week. I am writing this Thursday evening and am about to hit the road so I will end it here. Thanks for reading! Enjoy your Labor Day weekend and we'll see you back here on Tuesday. |