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Market Comments July 21, 2011 Current TSP Share Prices Twitter

Today's Commentary

Taking a post 200-point gain rest It was an uneventful day yesterday but the consolidation after the 200-point gain on Tuesday is reasonable action.  The Dow closed down 16-points and traded in a fairly tight range between being up 10-15-points and down 25-30.             For the TSP, the C-fund slipped 0.05% yesterday, the S-fund lost 0.15%, the I-fund finally played catch up gaining 1.32%, and the F-fund (bonds) was down 0.13%. The S&P 500 has been chopping for 7 consecutive days - down, up, down, up, etc...  Sorry, that's about the most exciting observation I can make after a boring day of trading.  The support we have been watching continues to hold and we'll just have to see who wants to step up next, buyers or sellers.                                                  Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk Yesterday we talked about the strength of the Nasdaq 100.  It also took a rest yesterday despite the big gain in Apple Computer, which makes up a large part of that index.  There is an open gap primed to be filled, but I see some positive developments in this chart.                           Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk The obvious observation is that the Naz 100 is in a long trading range between about 2200 and 2400.  After a strong rally from 2009 into 2011, this extended consolidation is a very healthy formation that I suspect will eventually result in an upside breakout.  The question is, will we see a test of the lower end of the trading range first?   The inverted head and shoulders patterns (blue circles) are generally bullish but we will want to see a breakout above the neckline (top red line), otherwise we could see the other common outcome of an inverted H&S pattern, which is a test of the middle of the head.  Remember these?  The first inverted H&S in the above chart resulted in option #1 below.  Will the current inverted H&S do the same or will the more common option #2 below manifest, which is a breakout?    You can see below that there are a couple of weak days in the July seasonality chart about this time of the month.  Today is day #14.  Also, the the smart money put/call ratios became quite bearish yesterday, but this is the very short-term indicator.  I still have a couple of IFT's left in July and I am contemplating stepping aside for a few days, with the intention of buying back in before the end of the month.  Thanks for reading!   We'll see you back here tomorrow. Tom Crowley Click here to discuss today's Market Commentary

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