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Market Comments July 12, 2011 Current TSP Share Prices Twitter

Today's Commentary

50% shave After Friday's poor jobs report, and the ongoing European debt contagion, most recently surfacing in Italy, stocks plummeted again yesterday.  The Dow lost another 151-points. For the TSP, the C-fund lost 1.81% yesterday, the S-fund fell 2.31%, the I-fund dropped 2.45%, and the F-fund (bonds) gained 0.29%.  The S&P 500 has now given back about 50% of its recent gains.  The rally was sharper than anyone expected, so will this pullback be more severe than we might expect?  It seems the bigger they come, the harder they fall. Any more weakness and we would see some technical damage done to the charts.  As of now, this decline has moved to just above the 20 and 50-day EMA's and there are some compelling trend lines that are also just below current levels, so the 1310-1315 becomes very important, and the overnight futures are down testing those levels as I write this. If broken, there is a lot of open air below on the chart.                                                   Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk The decline has now moved the NYSE overbought / oversold indicator from extremely overbought at +1000, to a neutral +27 reading.                           Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk Today is the 7th trading day in July, and as you can see in the July seasonality chart below, we hit another pocket of strength about this time of the month as earning season kicks off.  Alcoa started it yesterday after the close with a decent earnings report, although the stock went down modestly in after hours trading cause expectations were pretty high.  Earnings season is a very welcome sight for the market because there had not been very many catalysts out there with the recent, less than exciting, economic data. Thanks for reading!   We'll see you back here tomorrow. Tom Crowley Click here to discuss today's Market Commentary

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