Today's Comments (Short Term Outlook)                             Printer friendly

Oil finally a factor? Stocks sold off yesterday, apparently on the spike in oil prices and the speculation that it could go much higher.  Is this really news? Where was the concern on Tuesday?  I couldn't put my finger on the reason for the rally on Tuesday.  I guess $120 oil is OK, but $123 is not?  Well, the talk yesterday was more of $150 to $200 range after some analysts chimed in. Daniel Yergin, chairman of Cambridge Energy Research Associates, told Reuters, "With scant global spare oil production capacity, further dollar weakness could send oil prices to $150 a barrel in coming years." CERA's prediction came the day after investment bank Goldman Sachs said oil prices could scale $200 a barrel in the next two years as part of an ongoing "super spike" in the market. The tipping point? The S&P 500 moved back down below the 200-day exponential moving average, which is something we have been watching closely.  I don't have it shown, but the 200-day simple moving average has actually not been reached yet.  Some techies use exponential for the shorter timeframe moving averages like 20 or 50, while using the simple moving average for the 200-day.                     Charts provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com - with analysis by TSP Talk Taking a look at the put/call ratios; the 10-day moving average of the CBOE put/call ratio shows that the "dumb money" is as bullish as it has been all year.  The 10-day moving average of the "smart money" OEX put/call ratio is at its lowest point all year; meaning they are as bearish as they have been all year.                     Charts provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com - with analysis by TSP Talk Even if this is a minor pullback, caution is warranted as there are few catalysts out there for stocks right now. That's all for today.  Thanks for reading.  See you tomorrow! Have questions?  Visit our message board for answers.  Would you like to be on our email alert list?  We will send you an email when there is a change to our asset allocation or market outlook.  Your email address will never be given out.  Read our privacy policy.  By signing up you agree to the TSP Talk Terms of Service.  More details below **. Are you bullish or bearish?  Join the Weekly Sentiment Survey. Like what you're reading?  Tell a Friend about us. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** By joining our email alert list you will receive an email each time we initiate a transfer or change our market outlook.  You may also receive an email each Monday morning reminding you that our comments are updated daily.  We will always send out these emails prior to making the transfer myself but we can not guarantee you will receive it in time to make a transferide to follow our transfers in your own account, you do so at your own risk.  There is always a possibility for a loss in your account.  These transfers could come very often and you may have to act quickly to make the deadline.  Please consider your investment strategy before taking any advice or making any transactions.  By reading the contents of TSP Talk.com and accepting the email alerts, you must agree to the Terms of Service.  Thank you. TSP Talk