TSP Talk - Thrift Savings Plan Strategies

Market Comments

April 9, 2010

Current TSP Share Prices

Today's Commentary (Short Term Outlook)

108

A mixed day on Wall Street yesterday as the Dow bounced back 29-points after Wednesday's dip, but small caps were flat and the I-fund lost ground.

For the TSP funds, the C-fund gained 0.34%, the S-fund ticked up 0.03%, the I-fund lost 0.68% after early weakness in U.S. stocks and the dollar, and bonds (the F-fund) slipped 0.07%.

The S&P 500 continues to test the lower support of the ascending trading channel.


                      Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The S&P is now trading 108 points its 200-day EMA, and if you recall, back in January we were noticing that once it gets about 110-115 points above that EMAl, the rally seems to run out of steam.

                      Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

Also, the negative divergence in the MACD indicator continues, and although it has meant very little over the last several weeks, historically it is a sign that the rally could be getting tired.

On a positive note, the Dow Transportation Index made a new high yesterday, finally catching up to the S&P 500's new high. You'd normally expect it to be the other way around, where the Transports lead the way. It has now broken out of a nice little 3-week base that may be initiating another leg up which, if it is going to resume its normal leadership role, would obviously be beneficial to the S&P 500.

                      Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

Yesterday's TSP Talk Sentiment Survey came it at 51% bulls, 38% bears for a 1.32 to 1 bulls to bears ratio, which is neutral, and that will keep the system in the S-fund for next week.



The system seems to be back in business this year. After lagging the indices in 2009 with a gain of +6.62%, the sentiment survey system is up 13.62% so far this year.

Earnings season officially kicks off next week when Alcoa reports after the close on Monday. With the indices still soaring in 2010, perhaps earnings season will finally kick in some profit taking from investors, giving some of us a chance to get back in the ball game.

Thanks for reading. Have a great weekend!

Tom Crowley

TSP Talk is in no way affiliated with the U.S. government, or military TSP Thrift Savings Plan, tsp.gov, or any other government agency. TSP Talk does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report, nor does TSPtalk.com assume any liability for any loss that may result from reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Such information and opinions are subject to change without notice and are for general information only. The information contained on this website is for educational purposes only and not intended to be recommendations, and may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or otherwise distributed without prior written consent from TSPtalk.com.