Today's Comments (Short Term Outlook)                             Printer friendly

Rolling over The market needs to step up now or we could see it roll over ending another bear market rally.  The indices finished well off of their lows but the lower high / lower low could be the start of another pullback. As long as the S&P is trading below the 200-day moving average (DMA), and the 20 DMA is below the 50 DMA, we have to be on our guard.  It is a bear market until proven otherwise.  Some of the rallies are playable, but once the indices become overbought, it's back to defense.                                       Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com I was looking for some interesting indicator to show you, but nothing was very extreme.  The overbought/oversold indicator is still overbought and starting to head down, but nothing too alarming.  The OEX put/call ratio says the smart money is not overly bullish, but not too bearish either.  The 10-day moving average of the ARMs Index is at 1.13; right between the overbought (< 0.90) and oversold (> 1.30) readings. The recent momentum has been up but we are in a choppy market at best, which means sell rallies.  If the S&P 500 moves down but can hold the 1260-1270 area, then we can say that the bottoming base is getting stronger and we could see a decent rally later in the year, but we are not there yet.  We are seeing some improvement but caution is still warranted.  The market could surprise us and bounce right back up, but I'm actually looking for more downside action from here. That's all for today.  Thanks for reading.  See you tomorrow! Time is running out:  Today is the last day to send comments for the Participants Choices of TSP Funds Federal Register.  Here is some information.  Please let them know how you feel: FRTIB IFT limit rule posted on Federal  Register  Fax comments online | Sample comments Proposed Rules  |  TSPshareholder.org  |  New - TSPshareholder.org Newsletter - 04/07/08 More on the proposed TSP trading limits Have questions?  Visit our message board for answers.  Would you like to be on our email alert list?  We will send you an email when there is a change to our asset allocation or market outlook.  Your email address will never be given out.  Read our privacy policy.  By signing up you agree to the TSP Talk Terms of Service.  More details below **. Are you bullish or bearish?  Join the Weekly Sentiment Survey. Like what you're reading?  Tell a Friend about us.