Today's Comments (Short Term Outlook)                             Printer friendly

Comebacks and givebacks I am going to make this quick today as I was watching the Kansas / Memphis NCAA final late last night.  If you have not seen the final and have recorded it, stop reading now - I am about to give it away... The Dow had a lot in common with Memphis yesterday as a big early gain / lead, turned into a break even day.  That is, the 125-point gain in the Dow turned into basically a break-even day by the close.  Just as Memphis' 9-point lead with less than 2 minutes to go in the game, turned into a tie game at the buzzer.           Kansas was able to complete the big comeback by overtaking Memphis in overtime, and since the market game never really ends, today will be the overtime.  OK, that's enough bad basketball analogies.  The S&P 500 has closed in a very tight range (1367.53 - 1372.54) over the last 5 trading days.  This is not a great short-term pattern, but the fact that the market is holding up despite being overbought, is a positive sign.  I have been expecting it to rollover any day now, and it still might, but fighting the resistance and overbought condition, and not losing, is encouraging.                                       Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com We are seeing the 20-day moving average about to test the 50-day moving average, and that could trigger an overbought pullback, but any sell-off could be setting up another playable bounce.  That said, with the financials still in turmoil, oil closing in on $110 a barrel, and Alcoa kicking off earnings season with a disappointment, I am still not sold on the market being out of the water yet, but I'll remind you again of the potential for big rallies in bear markets.  Look for the 200-day moving average and the declining resistance line near 1415 and 1425 respectively, as a possible target for any intermediate-term rally.  That's quite a mixed message and the bottom line is that the market could chop around a while.  Whether you are in the market or out, I wouldn't get caught up in chasing.  Dips could be buying opportunities, and rallies could be selling opportunities.  Be patient. That's all for today.  Thanks for reading.  See you tomorrow! Time is running out:  Wednesday brings the end of the comment period for the Participants Choices of TSP Funds Federal Register.  Here is some information.  Please let them know how you feel: FRTIB IFT limit rule posted on Federal  Register  Fax comments online | Sample comments Proposed Rules  |  TSPshareholder.org  |  More on the proposed TSP trading limits Have questions?  Visit our message board for answers.  Would you like to be on our email alert list?  We will send you an email when there is a change to our asset allocation or market outlook.  Your email address will never be given out.  Read our privacy policy.  By signing up you agree to the TSP Talk Terms of Service.  More details below **. Are you bullish or bearish?  Join the Weekly Sentiment Survey. Like what you're reading?  Tell a Friend about us.