Today's Comments (Short Term Outlook)                             Printer friendly

Are things different this time? Huge day for stocks, but we've seen this before.  This bear market has seen its share of monster rallies, but each of the prior plus 300 to 400-point days have turned out to be good selling opportunities.  Will it be different this time? The S&P 500 is now trading above the 50-day exponential moving average for the first time all year, but you can see in the chart that this rally brings the index up close to resistance, although the 200-day moving average is still over 40-points away.                                      Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com What has typically happened after these rallies is that we get another day or two of some follow-through, but then stocks run out of steam. Will it be different this time?  The market likes to do what we least expect and since we been conditioned to expect the selling after a rally, perhaps this time it will be different?  yes, perhaps, but it is a gamble. The chart is looking a little better as a base is beginning to develop, but we are still in a down trend and we won't know if it is "different this time" until the trend is broken.  I suspect we will see a couple of days of back and forth action, although with a positive bias up toward the resistance, and then Friday's jobs report could make or break it for us.  A poor report could send us back down, or a strong report could give us that higher high the bulls have been waiting for. This time of year is very busy for me and some nights I don't get home until quite late in the evening.  I have just enough time to upload the new share prices, respond to some email, post the updated premium services articles that are sent to me, and write a quick daily commentary.  Last night was one of those nights so I'm going to cut it short today. See you tomorrow! Have questions?  Visit our message board for answers.  Would you like to be on our email alert list?  We will send you an email when there is a change to our asset allocation or market outlook.  Your email address will never be given out.  Read our privacy policy.  By signing up you agree to the TSP Talk Terms of Service.  More details below **. Are you bullish or bearish?  Join the Weekly Sentiment Survey. Like what you're reading?  Tell a Friend about us.