TSP Talk

Market Comments

TSP Tracker

Premiums

Site Map

TSP Funds

Message Board

Returns

Today's Commentary           Not seeing a current commentary?

Dollar falls, stocks rise Stocks rallied yesterday after The Fed policy statement and press conference.  The Dow gained 96-points, following through on Tuesday's breakout day.                                       For the TSP, the C-fund gained 0.64% yesterday, the S-fund was up 0.65%, the I-fund jumped up 1.33%, and the F-fund (bonds) lost 0.15%.  Investors didn't believe The Ben Bernank (Ben Bernanke) yesterday.  In the first press conference held by The Fed in 97 years, he tried to downplay the inflation situation and as he did, the dollar sank and commodity prices, and then stock prices, jumped.                     The S&P 500 followed through on Tuesday's breakout, and now the old neckline should act as support.  If it doesn't, we will have a problem and that open gap will definitely be a factor at some point, but a breakout of an inverted head and shoulders is a bullish sign and the projected target will be near 1420 if it holds.                                                    Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk A wider view shows that we are clearly in a long-term bull market.  The PMO indicator has moved into buy mode again, but there is a negative divergence in the MACD.  I guess we can't have everything.                                                  Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk The NYSE is overbought but not too extreme.  The +500 is high, but in a bull market we shouldn't be surprised to see +1000.                         Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk On the downside, we will be starting the weaker six month period of the year starting next week.  You may have heard the phrase, "sell in May and go away." May isn't a terrible month...                                     Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com  But historically, most of the year's gains come during the months of November through April.                                       Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com So the bulls have the ball in their court, and the bears will have their work cut out for them if they are going to take the market down.  Fundamentally, a lot of this doesn't make sense to me, but the market is smarter than I am and the charts tell us what the market is doing - which is going up.   Thanks for reading!  We'll see you back here tomorrow.   Click here to discuss today's Market Commentary Tom Crowley

TSP Talk does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report, nor does TSPtalk.com assume any liability for any loss that may result from reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Such information and opinions are subject to change without notice and are for general information only.  The information contained on this website is for educational purposes only and not intended to be recommendations, and may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or otherwise distributed without prior written consent from TSPtalk.com.