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Intel earnings Stocks bounced back yesterday after Monday's big sell-off.  The Dow gained 65-points and after the bell we saw some decent earnings from a couple of big tech stocks. For the TSP, the C-fund gained 0.58% yesterday, the S-fund was up 0.38%, the I-fund added 0.43%, and the F-fund (bonds) gained 0.07%. The morning was choppy and it didn't look like the dip buyers were going to show up, but just before noon ET, things started to head north.                                    Of course our trading deadline is 12 noon ET so the fact that the 50-day EMA was not holding at that time, I may have made a mistake by selling (G-fund) just prior to the deadline yesterday.  Unfortunately, that leaves me with no IFT's for the rest of the month, which is actually just 7 trading days with Friday being a holiday. Now that I am in the G-fund, I don't want to sound more pessimistic than if I hadn't made the move, but I obviously became a little concerned about the market after the break of the 50-day EMA.  While the S&P did climb back above the 50-day EMA, it does remain below the 50-day Simple Moving Average.  I don't usually follow the SMA but many traders do and we'll have to see how they react to it on the likely test today.                                                   Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk Like the S&P, the low on Monday did produce a short-term downtrend in the Nasdaq, but that could be taken out on a good day today.  The positive earnings from Intel and Yahoo gave the futures a boost higher after the close yesterday and that should help the tech heavy Nasdaq Index in particular - if it holds.                                                   Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk That said, we've talked about the earnings influenced gaps up in Intel's history many times before.  This is what we posted here last year during Intel's April earnings report... "... Intel posted a solid earnings report and the stock moved higher in after hours trading. It has been fairly common to see the market peak out, at least in the short term, after a positive or negative report. "Of course sentimenTrader.com is all over this trend. When the QQQQ (the Nasdaq 100 index) is within 2% of a 1-year high and Intel reports...                                                                Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com "Only two of the last 15 occurrences saw the Nasdaq 100 higher two weeks later." And what happened last year? ....                                                   Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk The only difference is the Nasdaq 100 is with about 3% of a new high, not 2% as the data references. So I will be leery of a gap up in stocks this morning, but if it does hold, and the 50-day EMA and SMA's hold, then we might be looking at the start of the completion of the right shoulder of the head and shoulders pattern we have been watching, which would be bullish for stocks.  After oil pulled back from its highs near 113 several days ago, it seems to have found support at the $106 area and if it hangs around this level I would not be concerned, but if we start seeing $110 or higher again, and this chart does look bullish for oil, then the economy and stocks may feel the pain.                                                   Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk Friday is a market holiday so we posted this week's Sentiment Survey a day early this week, so we can post the results on Thursday morning.  The TSP will not be processing transfers on Friday. Thanks for reading!  We'll see you back here tomorrow.   Click here to discuss today's Market Commentary Tom Crowley

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