For the TSP, the C-fund fell 0.78% yesterday, the S-fund lost 1.16%, the I-fund dropped 1.28%, and the F-fund (bonds) rallied 0.32%. 

The S&P 500 has now pulled back to the 50-day EMA after breaking below the 20-day EMA.  That break is a warning sign for us and the 50-day EMA becomes the focal point for support.  You can see that the right shoulder (RS) of the inverted head and shoulders (circles) has reached a level that the bulls would like to see hold (50 EMA and bottom of parallel channel.)

                         
                        Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The Nasdaq also broke through the 20-day EMA and it testing the 50-day EMA.

                        Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

Surprisingly, the recent sharp drop in the price oil is not helping the stock market, or so it seems.  Perhaps stocks would have fallen further?  Sometimes stocks move with the price of oil, usually when the economy and demand are the issue, and other times they move inversely like when the price of oil hits levels that will affect the consumer.

                         
                        Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The drop in oil does help the market leading, oil sensitive, Dow Transportation Index as the trannies have  stabilized over the last two days while the broader stock market has been falling.  You can see that yesterday was an "outside day" meaning the high was higher than the prior day's high, and the low was lower than the prior day's low.  These tend to be bullish if the close positive, and they can be reversal patterns.

                         
                        Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The NYSE overbought/oversold indicator is down below -400.  The -500 level tends to bring in buyers during a bull market.
                        
                        Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

After sitting in the G-fund for the last week or so, I decided to use my 2nd IFT in April yesterday to go to a 100% stock fund allocation.  With the Sentiment Survey System giving us a buy signal for this week, and the indices flirting with the 50-day EMA, I am taking a shot.  If I am wrong I will have to decide if I want to hold on and take the heat during the decline, or if I want to sell and use my final G-fund IFT of the month.

Thanks for reading!  We'll see you back here tomorrow.