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Market Comments March 2, 2011 Current TSP Share Prices Facebook Twitter

Today's Commentary

Indices near do or die Stocks opened solidly higher Tuesday morning, but as the price of oil started to rise, the stock indices headed the other way.  The Dow dropped 168-points.                                 For the TSP, the C-fund dropped 1.58% yesterday, the S-fund lost 1.82%, the I-fund fell 0.85%, and the F-fund (bonds) picked up 0.05%.  The S&P 500 lost 1.6% and is acting like the two-day rally may have been just a bear flag.  This test of the rising trend line is very important, otherwise we could have ourselves a lower low and that means downtrend.                                                    Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk Before that happens, however, we'll hope that we just get a repeat of what we saw in the Russell 2000  back in January.  If that's the case, we need to see stocks move higher very quickly.                                                  Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk The Dow Transportation Index is taking the brunt of this oil induced decline.  It did not make a new low, but it did close at its lowest point since December 1, if you can believe that.                                                                             Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk I posted the put/call ratios yesterday and I wanted to follow through on what the smart money is doing.  The very bearish reading of the smart money is usually a bearish sign for stocks, but for several months now this indicator has been quite ineffective as a market timer. With yesterday's sell-off, perhaps the smart money is back on track - its too early to say.  But for what it's worth, the daily reading from the smart money shot all the way up near 1 to 1.                                                  Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk This smart money indicator is a lot more volatile that the dumb money put / call ratios and they like to take advantage of every swing in the market.  So, this one day bullish spike in the indicator may just mean they are looking for a bounce today, but the 10-day MA is still sitting near 1.90 and that is a very bearish reading for our smart money.  It may mean that we need to start selling the rallies.  The S&P is just above some major support and if the support does not hold, a break of the 20 and 50-day EMA's and the ascending trend line would be pretty close to - three strikes and your out.  Thanks for reading!  We'll see you tomorrow. Tom Crowley Click here to discuss today's Market Commentary

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