Today's Comments (Short Term Outlook)                             Printer friendly

Testing, 1-2-3... It's rare when the indices can be down 1.2 to 2.3% in a day, and there's not much to say.  Stocks sold off yesterday but remained above the January low.  The stone's throw to the test of that low is now a whisper away. The best bet for the market could be to see a break of that 1270 area on high volume, because a low volume turnaround here would only delay the inevitable.  I do believe we will see lower lows, but how it will play out, I don't know.  The only thing I do know is that we are due for some short-term relief, despite the continued bad news.                                  Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com      Since nothing has changed, the only other thing I want to add today is that the SentimenTrader.com's dumb money indicator that we talked about yesterday, dropped below 17 yesterday.  That is about as low as it gets, even looking back toward the bear market lows.                                 Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com The market rallied in the short-term each time, although it did not necessarily mean the bear market was over - just that a playable rally was at hand.   Texas Instruments guided lower after the close yesterday and that could make things tough for technology today, but Bear Stearns came out and denied the the reported liquidity problem.  The Fed Funds futures are now pricing in a 100% change of a 75 basis-point (0.75%) rate cut at next Tuesday's FOMC meeting, but there is more talk of the Fed stepping in early to save the economy / market (at the expense of inflation of course).  That could backfire. Volume is surprisingly moderate as we still have not seen signs of panic.  Fear, yes.  Panic, not so much.  If the fed steps in, look for volume to pop. Time to Act! - FRTIB IFT limit rule posted today in Federal  Register!  We will be hearing from the folks at TSPshareholder.org in the next day or two on how they plan to respond.  Please stay tuned.  That's all for today.  See you tomorrow.    Have questions?  Visit our message board for answers.  Would you like to be on our email alert list?  We will send you an email when there is a change to our asset allocation or market outlook.  Your email address will never be given out.  Read our privacy policy.  By signing up you agree to the TSP Talk Terms of Service.  More details below **. Are you bullish or bearish?  Join the Weekly Sentiment Survey. Like what you're reading?  Tell a Friend about us. TSP Talk