No surprises.

Monday's early 70 point gain in the Dow that turned into a 20 point gain was no real surprise.  We saw a bounce, and we saw some selling into that bounce.  I suspect we could see similar action over the next few days.  Similar to what we saw in mid-September (see yesterday's chart on the bottom half of this page.)

Other than that the only excitement Monday came from the dollar which finally broke out of its tight trading range and, fortunately for those who were in the I fund, it was to the downside.  A weak dollar benefits the I fund and a rising dollar hurts it.


                                    Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com

The chart is now looking rather bearish for the dollar.

The very short term indicators for stocks are still oversold and the intermediate term is still overbought to neutral.  I can see flat to slightly up days ahead for stocks but I am anticipating an eventual move below Friday's low based on the culmination of my indicators.

Not much more to add.  I am still cautious but those of you who like to take chances might want to dip into stocks for a few days.  Just know that if and when we move toward Friday's low it will trigger the stop losses of those trying to catch this rally and another swift move down could follow.  Be careful on the long side if you are trying to trade. 

Administrative note:  RevShark's TSP Timing Newsletter will be launched this weekend.  TSP Timing is a weekly newsletter giving subscribers a target allocation determined by professional hedge fund manager James 'RevShark' DePorre.   Subscribers will navigate the financial seas along side the Rev while he manages millions of dollars for private investors.  Each week he will highlight TSP funds and a target allocation he believes will provide the best investment potential.

We will offer a 14 day free trial beginning this weekend.  Stay tuned for more details.

That's all for today.  I am currently 100% F fund.  Thanks for reading.