Market Comments January 22, 2009 TSP Fund share prices as of: 01/21/09 Fund - G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund 12.7567 12.5357 9.7210 11.4497 12.7273 $  Change - 0.0007 -0.0711 0.4051 0.5128 0.4731 % Chg day - +0.01% -0.56% +4.35% +4.69% +3.86% % Chg wk - +0.03% -0.71% -1.15% -2.09% -2.97% % Chg mon - +0.13% -0.36% -6.84% -6.20% -10.72% % Chg 2009 - +0.13% -0.36% -6.84% -6.20% -10.72%   L2040 L2030 L2020 L2010 L Income 11.6933 11.9216 12.2606 13.5318 12.5996 $  Change - 0.3882 0.3486 0.2999 0.1612 0.1032 % Chg day - +3.43% +3.01% +2.51% +1.21% +0.83% % Chg wk - -1.56% -1.33% -1.09% -0.50% -0.33% % Chg mon - -6.37% -5.56% -4.65% -2.18% -1.45% % Chg 2009 - -6.37% -5.56% -4.65% -2.18% -1.45%

Today's Comments (Short Term Outlook)                             Printer  friendly

Whipsaws Stocks rebounded sharply yesterday gaining back a large chunk of Tuesday's losses as the oversold / overly bearish market provided some relief.  Can it last? Despite being up over 35-points or 4%, the S&P 500 actually put in its second lowest close of the year; meaning yesterday's rally did nothing more than gain back a good portion of Tuesday's losses. Volume was about 5.3 billion shares, which is about where it has been the last three trading days, but to see a meaningful reversal, I'd like to see it hit the 7 billion mark as it did at the October and November lows.                         Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk As we mentioned yesterday, the market was probably due for a snap-back rally and yesterday's action certainly qualifies.  But we also said that, being a bear market, it may not last more than two or three days.  We could be in for some choppiness while we work off the recent oversold readings and overly bearish sentiment. I think the Ebbchart commentary from Tuesday morning called it best (in his EbbChart-ese):   "...we are now looking at quadruple pattern 3s for the week.  We've had one instance of a quadruple pattern before and it behaved like a pair -- up one day and down the next.  Get ready for a roller coaster ride. " If that pattern is correct, we might expect the choppiness to could continue today (down) and maybe up again on Friday?  We'll see.  It's sure tough to play in our TSP accounts, however.  The rally did take the indicators off of their short-term oversold levels and we'll find out later today what the recent swings in the market did to the sentiment surveys.  The 840-850 area should act as resistance for any rally.  If the S&P can somehow manage a move back above 850, and eventually the 50-day moving average again, I could be swayed, but right now I am still looking at this rally as a short-term bear market rally that should be sold. That's all for today.  Thanks for reading.  See you tomorrow!