Market Comments January 21, 2009 TSP Fund share prices as of: 01/20/09 Fund - G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund 12.7560 12.6068 9.3159 10.9369 12.2542 $  Change - 0.0030 -0.0186 -0.5182 -0.7572 -0.8631 % Chg day - +0.02% -0.15% -5.27% -6.48% -6.58% % Chg wk - +0.06% -0.16% -9.52% -9.76% -13.02% % Chg mon - +0.12% +0.21% -10.72% -10.40% -14.04% % Chg 2009 - +0.12% +0.21% -10.72% -10.40% -14.04%   L2040 L2030 L2020 L2010 L Income 11.3051 11.5730 11.9607 13.3706 12.4964 $  Change - -0.5730 -0.5097 -0.4352 -0.2286 -0.1449 % Chg day - -4.82% -4.22% -3.51% -1.68% -1.15% % Chg wk - -8.69% -7.62% -6.40% -3.09% -2.10% % Chg mon - -9.48%% -8.32% -6.98% -3.34% -2.25% % Chg 2009 - -9.48% -8.32% -6.98% -3.34% -2.25%

Today's Comments (Short Term Outlook)                             Printer  friendly

Reality check The financial sector continues to suffer bringing the entire market down along with it.  The TSP stock funds dropped 5.3% to 6.6% and the G fund was the only one to end in positive territory. The S&P 500 chart is still in poor shape and it would seem a test of the November lows is inevitable, the question is will it hold?                         Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk The banking industry continues to lead the way down as you can see from this 5-day chart of the Bank Index (BKX) and the S&P 500 (GSPC), the banking sector started to weaken last week while the S&P did its pre-holiday rally.       According to www.sentimentrader.com: "The last time we saw the S&P 500 rise for two straight days while the S&P Banks Index dropped for two straight days (with an overall loss of more than -2%) was May 19th of last year, which marked the exact top of the prior intermediate-term rally.  The one prior to that was December 13, 2007, which again led to an ugly decline in the week(s) ahead." They also pointed out just how oversold the banking sector is however, and that a relief rally is very possible.  The dollar has really climbed its way back from the recent pullback / correction, as Europe, and in particular the U.K., appear to be in more trouble than we are.                         Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk This has contributed to the I-fund's 14% loss this month.  Another amazing month.  The question of course is, will the carnage continue or is this a good buying opportunity?  The indicators are getting a little stretched to the oversold and overly bearish side, which does bode well for a little snap-back rally, but we saw similar readings this past fall and the market still had a difficult time putting together much more than a 2 or 3 day rally.  If you do decide to buy this weakness, I would not get too greedy if you happen to snag a gain. That's all for today.  Thanks for reading.  See you tomorrow!