TSP Talk - Thrift Savings Plan Strategies

Quick update today

The Dow has finally reached and closed above the elusive 11,000 milestone. The cheerleaders on TV sure seemed happy about it. Will the momentum continue now or will it fizzle out? Will investors continue to buy any weakness or has the market finally run out of steam? Will we get a real pullback or can the indices continue to forge ahead.

Sentimentrader.com posted some stats on other years where January started out with a bang. It is based on gain and current volatility. You can see that the action over the next few days and weeks were quite mixed.

Fireworks to Begin the Year S&P 500, 1950 - 2005
	5 Days Later	10 Days Later	15 Days Later	30 Days Later	60 Days Later
Avg Return	-0.3%	-0.1%	+0.8%	+1.3%	+3.3%
% Positive	60%	60%	60%	80%	70%
Avg Max Gain	+1.3%	+2.3%	+3.1%	+4.2%	+6.6%
Avg Max Loss	-2.0%	-2.4%	-3.3%	-4.2%	-4.5%

The years represented were 1951, 1954, 1958, 1976, 1983, 1984, 1987, 1988, 1999 and 2003.

So, I don't have the answers but you know where my money is. We will have to see how the next few days play out.

That’s all for today. Currently 50% G, 50% F. Thanks for reading.