Today's Comments (Short Term Outlook)                             Printer friendly

What will the cash do? The indices are sure making some big moves lately, and the bulls were the recipients of a nice rally yesterday.  Those still in cash have a decision to make. The S&P 500 made its highest close since the first week in November.  The rallies have been big and quick and no doubt there are many people stuck on the sidelines trying to decide whether they should go ahead and buy now, or risk waiting for a dip.                                        Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com Patience can pay off, and since we have some big economic news waiting in the wings in the shape of an important jobs report Friday, and an FOMC meeting with a rate cut Tuesday, the cash may not be ready to gamble just yet.  But that just means there will be ammunition on the sidelines to keep stocks afloat.  If stocks continue to rally, the cash will eventually come in.  If the jobs report and/or the Fed meeting, bring the market down, that may be the dip that cash was waiting for.  So, I don't see what would put a stop to this rally in the short-term (next week or two).  As I talked about a few days ago, the dollar seems to be ready to make a long overdue move higher.  We did see another large rally yesterday in the dollar giving the chart at least a short-term higher high, which is positive 9for the dollar).                                        Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com   The downside to this is that the I-fund will be handicapped as the weight of a rising dollar could slow down any gains.  We saw that yesterday as the EAFE was up 1.56% in local currencies, but only 0.63% in dollars.  That's why the I-fund was "only" up 0.64%, compared to the 1.3 to 1.6% gain in U.S. stocks.  Something to keep in mind when choosing which stocks funds to use. The recent action got Griffin to post a mid-week Griffin's Brief article.  That's all for today.  Did you take this week's sentiment survey?  See you tomorrow. Have questions?  Visit our message board for answers.  Would you like to be on our email alert list?  We will send you an email when there is a change to our asset allocation or market outlook.  Your email address will never be given out.  Read our privacy policy.  By signing up you agree to the TSP Talk Terms of Service.  More details below **. Are you bullish or bearish?  Join the Weekly Sentiment Survey. Like what you're reading?  Tell a Friend about us.