Market Comments November 3, 2008 TSP Fund share prices as of: 10/31/08 Fund - G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund 12.6711 11.7408 11.1223 13.1221 14.1951 $  Change - 0.0013 -0.0191 0.1676 0.4278 -0.0347 % Chg day - +0.01% -0.16% +1.53% +3.37% -0.24% % Chg wk - +0.07% -1.20% +10.53% +13.07% +12.01% % Chg mon - +0.31% -2.40% -16.83% -20.99% -20.59% % Chg 2008 - +3.18% -1.59% -32.84% -33.69% -42.67%   L2040 L2030 L2020 L2010 L Income 12.8012 12.8647 13.0156 13.8258 12.7383 $  Change - 0.1436 0.1268 0.1024 0.0550 0.0343 % Chg day - +1.13% +1.00% +0.79% +0.40% +0.27% % Chg wk - +9.32% +8.17% +6.83% +3.45% +2.25% % Chg mon - -15.40% -13.40% -11.10% -5.41% -3.44% % Chg 2008 - -29.82% -26.11% -21.83% -10.57% -5.43%

Today's Comments (Short Term Outlook)                             Printer friendly

Trading range Stocks closed out the month on a strong note last week, ending one of the worst months for the market in history.  After the October 10th low, we have seen the S&P 500 trade in a range between 840 and the high 900's.  Perhaps November will break us out one way or the other - or perhaps we'll remain in that range for a while. The S&P 500 briefly moved above the 20-day moving average on Friday, for the first time since mid-September.  In September, that same event lasted just one day as the S&P 500 quickly moved back below that MA.  This is one of the things that I am watching now.  The 20-day moving average, and in particular the 50-day moving average, are usually tough barriers to cross in a bear market, so we are getting a test.  A move to the 50-day moving average is a possibility, but it will have to deal with the resistance at the 20 day MA, and the 1000 area, first. The PMO indicator shot us a buy signal as it crossed above its 10-day moving average last week.  The -7.5 reading it had hit was an extremely low reading and some sort of relief was due.                                Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com The NYSE overbought/oversold indicator, which becomes more important when the market enters a trading range, is now near 400.  The 400-500 level has given the market trouble over the last several months, as you might expect in a bear market.  Again, we are seeing a test of this recent rally.                                Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com Could we have seen the bottom?  Maybe.  Is it possible that we will see a test the October lows again?  Yes.  I think we have to be cognizant of the fact that this is still a bear market, and no matter how big of a rally we see, there will be better signs when for us to get long (buy) for the long-term.  So, for those trying to buy THE bottom, keep trying you may do it, but we know it's a tough task.  For those who just want to stay on the sidelines until the coast is clear, you should be looking for the more longer-term signs such as the 20-day moving average moving above the 50-day moving average.  And more importantly, the 50-day moving average moving above the 200-day moving average. That will guarantee that you won't pick THE bottom, but those will be much safer signs that the bear market is over.  On the way down, the 50-day MA crossed below the 200-day moving average in early January of this year when the S&P 500 was near 1470, giving a long-term sell signal, and it has remained below since.  When it finally crosses back above, it should be equally convincing but we are a long way from that happening. In the interim, those wanting a little more action will have to watch those shorter-term indicators, and as we discussed, the overbought/oversold indicator should be our friend if the S&P 500 remains in a trading range. That's all for today.  Thanks for reading!  See you tomorrow!   Have questions?  Visit our message board for answers.  Would you like to be on our email alert list?  We will send you an email when there is a change to our asset allocation or market outlook.  Your email address will never be given out.  Read our privacy policy.  By signing up you agree to the TSP Talk Terms of Service.  More details below **. Are you bullish or bearish?  Join the Weekly Sentiment Survey. Like what you're reading?  Tell a Friend about us.                                 Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** By joining our email alert list You may also opt for a daily reminder, or each Monday morning reminding you that our comments are updated daily.  We will always send out these emails prior to making the transfers but we can not guarantee you will receive it in time to make a transfer should you decide to follow the transfers in your own account.  There is always a possibility for a loss in your account so following any recommended actions is done so at your own risk.  These transfers could be last minute decisions and you may have to act quickly to make the deadline.  Please consider your investment strategy before taking any advice or making any transactions.  By reading the contents of TSP Talk.com and accepting the email alerts, you must agree to the Terms of Servicee.  Thank you. TSP Talk