Being patient.

Modest gains Wednesday keep the rally going.  Falling oil prices and the prospect of the Fed ending interest rate hikes seem to be the stimuli.  We've now seen a 3% gain in the S&P 500 since the lows last week.  About half of that came last week, and half this week. 

I saw one interesting headline today say, "Stocks running on fumes."  That's what it feels like to me even though things are shaping up rather nicely for the market.  I am now patiently awaiting a better entry point.  I'm the first to admit that my instincts are not very good when it comes to timing the market which is why I rely heavily on my indicators.  But a 3% rally in a week based on a little pullback in oil and speculation that interest rates may (or may not) stop climbing because of a potential slowdown in the economy, has my antennae up for one more scare for stocks.  Also, the Dow Transports Index has not exactly confirmed this rally. 


                            Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com

I don't have too many bad things to say about the market as far as the the intermediate term goes.  That's a change for me since early summer.  For now it's just a matter of preserving capital while the short term overbought conditions lighten up.  I'm just not willing to chase right now.  The market is driven by fear and greed and I'm not going to let greed tempt me to jump into stocks when they are "running on fumes."  I will look for a better opportunity.


                            Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com

The volatile dollar is making it tough to figure out the I fund.  Catching a rally in the international index while the dollar is falling can be hugely rewarding.  But a falling EAFE index combined with a rising dollar can be disastrous.  The dollar has been up the past two days.  It appears to still be in a short term down trend but support is not too far below.

The new AAII Investor Sentiment Survey came out today.  Not surprisingly, the bullish percentage went from 32% last week to 42% this week, while bears dropped from 38% to 33%.  That's a pretty neutral reading.  Not too bullish.  Not too bearish.

That's all for today.  Currently 100% G fund.  Thanks for reading.