We are seeing a lot of psychology at work here. There were
many people (including myself) who positioned themselves defensively
concerned with oil and gas prices, the Katrina aftermath, and
potential recessionary pressures these could cause, that it had us
leaning the wrong way. Instead traders seemed to speculate
that this crisis could have the Fed easing up on the interest rate
hikes and add some liquidity to the system. That action would
stimulate the market but right now, as I said, it is speculation -
Buy the rumor, sell the news.
It was also likely a short squeeze. A short squeeze puts the
pain onto any one who is short the market (betting their money that
the market will go down) when it start to rise quickly. It
fuels the short trader to "buy to cover" their short position which
adds more fuel to the rally. That in turn ignites the bulls to
buy out of fear of missing out on the rally. What you get is a
strong rally as we saw yesterday. If there was any negative
yesterday it was that the volume was a lot lighter than during the
rallies last Wednesday and Thursday.
The very short term is now very overbought and we could see a little
pullback or at least a temporary consolidation. The market
looks strong but chasing big gains at this point may not be the
optimal move. I believe patience may be rewarded. It is
possible the market could test the recent lows before moving up.
You will have to decide for yourself if it is worth taking a chance
on missing more upside by waiting on a pullback. I am
proceeding cautiously. I don't believe it will be as easy for
the bulls as yesterday made it seem.
Aside from the big day in stocks, the G fund gave us the penny gain
yesterday (hardly satisfying), the F fund gave back some of last
week's gains, the dollar rallied and oil fell to about $66 a barrel.
That's all for today.
Currently 100% G fund. Thanks for reading.
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