Despite the many indications that the market is due for a break, the S&P 500 continues to climb higher.  The bull market rules (the 50-day EMA being above the 200-day EMA) tell us to buy dips. 

The strength in the market is being shown by its resilience despite the S&P 500 hitting resistance, the MACD sloping downward (negative divergence), and while the PMO has turned up, it is still on a sell signal.  Volume has picked up, and that's not bad.

The NYSE is back near extreme overbought readings...

We got the results of our latest TSP Talk Sentiment Survey and the bulls are coming back, which can be a bearish sign, but with our new bull market rules, it is not an extreme reading yet.

The bulls to bears ratio is 1.50 to 1 as 51% of those who responded were bullish and 34% were bearish.  That is the highest (most bullish) ratio since... get this ... October of 2007.  In a bull market, however, 1.50 to 1 is just a neutral reading.  It would have to hit 2.0 to 1 to generate a sell signal for the system.  By comparison, last week the ratio was just 0.89 to 1.  That is a pretty quick swing. 

But it now it gets a little muddy.  The 1.50 to 1 ratio on our survey is neutral but actually quite bullish for TSP Talkers lately, and since we are part of the "dumb money", that is a potential bearish sign for stocks going forward.  But the AAII Survey, which is also part of the "dumb money" saw a ratio of just 0.84 to 1 (37% bulls, 44% bears).  That is an overly bearish reading and a bullish sign for stocks.  Nothing is simple.

A couple of things to consider.  The above survey was from September 4, so it is a little old, but with the market moving straight up since then I can't see this getting any more bearish.  The other thing is this group seems to always be more bullish than the AAII survey.

So we have three dumb money surveys.  One is overly bullish, one is overly bearish, and one (TSP Talk) is neutral but hit its highest (most bullish) reading in almost two years.

The charts look great and I am trying to stay bullish but there are some troubling signs out there.  The overly bearish surveys give me hope that the rally can continue despite the warnings, but since we didn't get a clear indication of the sentiment from the multiple surveys, it is tough to say.  I will have to do some serious thinking on this over the weekend.

One more time.... For current and potential subscribers to Scribbler's TSP & Economic Report; If you haven't heard, Scribbler will be going from a twice weekly report to a daily report beginning this week.  This will not affect current monthly and annual subscribers price-wise, but in a couple of weeks the subscription prices will be increased for new subscribers.  If you have been considering a subscription to Scribbler's service, you may want to lock in the current prices. 

That's all for today.   Thanks for reading!  Have a great weekend.  We'll see you back here on Monday, or join us on the message board this weekend.