Is this the start of a rally?

Yesterday we talked about the possibility of a capitulation-like sell off early due to the hurricane.  One that we saw the day of the terrorist attacks in London.  The action was very similar in that the futures were way down prior to the open but once the market did open, the selling was much less severe than the futures may have indicated.  And of course both days saw a nice reversal.

In July the day after the reversal was the big day.  Things are different this time in that the technical picture is not as good and there are likely more reasons to sell the rally rather than buy the dip.  We were and are still due for a bounce based on many short term indicators.  The intermediate term indicators still tell us there could be some damage.  If you are brave enough to try to jump into stock to play the bounce, you must remain careful.  Sometimes these rallies end abruptly and severely.  With our trading deadline it could be painful if you are caught on the wrong side; like what happened to the circled rallies below in a down trending market.


                          Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com

The seasonal strength of Wednesday through Friday this week we've been talking  about could be worth a play, but this is a dangerous market and there are no guarantees. 

The I fund could see a rebound today as the Asian markets are up nicely as I write this Monday night and the dollar, which initially drop but they rallied strongly yesterday, will have to decide if the downtrend will continue or it is going to head back up.  If the dollar does rally early, breaking above that resistance, I may have to play it safe and get out of the I fund. 


                            Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com

I will again play it by ear Tuesday morning on whether or not to play this potential rally.  I might have made a move yesterday but I had already gone to work and many of you know that, while I can make transfers from work, I can not send out email alerts or post a message on the message board.  They frown on that type of behavior.  And I won't make a transfer unless I have an opportunity to let everyone know. 

That's all for today.  Currently 75% F and 25% I fund.  Thanks for reading.