Thrift Savings Plan Talk

Staying Cautious

I'm sure it is no shock at this point that I am approaching August with vigilance.   August has become the worst month for the S&P 500 in the past 15 years.

Since 1950
Best August     -   Worst August

1982 +11.5%      1998 -15.1%
1984 + 9.8%       1974 -10.4%
1986 + 6.9%       1990 -10.0%
2000 + 6.6%       1981 - 7.4%
1963 + 4.9%       1997 - 7.3%

Yesterday was the second mixed day in a row with the Dow being down, Nasdaq and S&P 500 up. This week's jobs report on Friday should shake things up some. Estimates are for approximately 180,000 new jobs being added in July. The market doesn't like surprises so the closer the report comes in to that figure, the better for the market. The further the report comes in outside of the 150,000 to 210,000 range, the more likely we will see stocks sell off.

Oil did make a new high yesterday going over $62 a barrel at one point, before closing at $61.57, up 1.7%. Still stocks held their ground. It is quite impressive, but how much more can the market take?

The dollar was down again helping the I fund pick up a nice gain Monday.

Bonds were also down and the F fund closed at its lowest point since May.

Here is this week's TSP Talk Sentiment Survey results:

For the week of 8/01 - 8/05...
	Votes	Ratio
Bullish (up)	83	56%
Bearish (down)	43	29%
Neutral	21	14%
147 votes total

I think you know the drill. Still 100% G fund. See you tomorrow.