The fact that you read these market comments leads to believe that you may be more like me in that you are looking to take control of your own account.  But now you have an option.  

Here is a link to information on the new L fund...  http://www.tsp.gov/lifecycle/flash/index.html

Now on to the market.  July left me feeling a little empty.  The late June pullback saw what I believed was the beginning of more extended weak period that would bring the S&P 500 down near the 1150 area.  Instead a shocking terror attack in London brought a panic sell off early on July 7th, which actually triggered a strong rally that lasted the entire month. 

Call me stubborn.  Call me crazy (and many of you did ), I continue to trust my indicators which still suggest the indices are due for a rest.  The indicators try to give me an indication of what is coming next.  The market can really only tell us one thing, what has already happened, although you can certainly read more into the charts than that.  But rearview mirror analysis is usually not a great strategy.  It's what's next that matters.

Currently the S&P 500 is up against some resistance but it also found some short term support.  A break of one is likely in the coming days. 


                              Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com

An interesting note:  There was a bit of a mixed bag last week.  The Dow actually ended the week down slightly.  The Nasdaq was up, and the S&P 500 was basically flat.

I mentioned the "dumb money" AAII Sentiment Survey last week:

58% Bullish
18% Bearish

... And this week we have the new Fearless Forecast Survey results (considered the "smart money"):

11% Bullish
61% Bearish. 

The TSP Talk Sentiment Survey currently being taken has the bulls favoring bears well over 2 to 1.  The bad news is that that is mimicking the "dumb money."  The good new is the "dumb money" has been on the right side of the market for weeks now.  The "dumb money" is sure making the "smart money" look.... well, dumb.

Crude oil is back over $60 a barrel but nearing resistance and higher prices could be a challenge.  But a strong move up at this point could mean another leg up which will likely affect stock prices.  The market seems to have gotten accustomed to $60 a barrel.  How will it react if we see $65 or $70?

The dollar is still looking extended.  A falling dollar would benefit the I Fund.  Not that the I Fund will go up because of this, but weakness in the dollar would cushion any drop, or boost any gains, in international stocks. 


                               Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com

We are now heading into the two weaker months of the year historically.  Again seasonality is never a major indicator, but it is worth noting.  You can find the August seasonality chart at the bottom of this page.

That's all for today.  Currently 100% G fund.  Thanks for reading.