|
| Today's Commentary |
|
Unusually uncertain Stocks were treading water for most of the day yesterday, right up until the Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke started talking about the economy, calling its outlook "unusually uncertain". The market is not a big fan of uncertainty so stocks headed south and by the close the Dow was down 109-points.  For the TSP funds, the C-fund lost 1.27%, the S-fund fell 1.58%, and the I-fund gave up 1.36%. The F-fund (bonds) was up 0.21%. Many of the indicators that I follow are close to the neutral area and the only thing I am really watching for answers is the way the S&P 500 and other major indices are reacting to the descending trend line and the 50/200-day EMA's. The S&P rallied up to the 50-day EMA and the descending trend line at the open yesterday but floundered into the afternoon before the Fed gave his "unusually uncertain" remark.  Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk I could have easily been influenced to turn more bullish if the S&P managed to break solidly above 50 & 200 EMA's and the trend line, but because it is trading below them all, and the 50 is below the 200, I expected a bearish result, which is what we have so far. Because yesterday's action was greatly influenced by a news event, I am less likely to take it seriously. But I do take the charts seriously, and right now they are in serious trouble. I'm guessing if I mention the 50-day EMA, 200-day EMA, or descending trend line one more time, I am liable to lose half of my audience. I am starting to bore myself. But that is where the answers lie at the moment. At least until some of our indicators give us a more clear picture. Caution remains warranted and that 1040-1045 support area, plus the July 1st low near 1011 are the next areas of concern. Thank you for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow. Tom Crowley |