WoW! (Wall of Worry).
It's been two weeks since I started to get more defensive, and only a couple of days that I'm 100% G fund, but it isn't fun watching the market creep up without me as it climbs that wall of worry. It's much worse to be in the market when it is going down, but it's a close second to watch it go up from the sidelines.
The charts I am displaying below may be considered no better than an astrological or Ouija Board prediction, but take a look again at this 2005 to 1994 comparison.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com
It's uncanny and I can't help but be intrigued by the similarity. In 1994 that "new short term high" was made on June 15. Yesterday, June 16, the S&P 500 made the "new short term high". If what came next in 1994 plays out again, I'll have no regrets about being on the sidelines.
Of course it is unlikely to play out in a day to day comparison, but it has to get your attention as a possibility. These charts are not just stock prices. They are pictures of a combination of economic conditions, psychology, and valuations. 1994 had a very similar situation in all those respects as 2005 and people repeat actions when similar situations present themselves. If that is true, this rally's days could be numbered. Either that or the market will serve me a nice slice of humble pie.
Those wobbly legs of the market (psychology and monetary conditions) have me more defensive than I'd like to be. I have to trust those indicators because they are a lot smarter, and less emotional, than I am.
Administrative Note: I have started the TSP Talk Weekly Sentiment Survey which will be a poll sent via email each Friday asking you one question; Are you bullish, bearish or neutral for the market in the coming week? If you want to be a part of this, click here ... Join the Weekly Sentiment Survey and input your email address. When the confirmation page comes up, there will be two boxes on the left side. One to join the Weekly Survey, and one to join the email alert list. Choose the box of the list you wish to be added to. If you are already on the email alert list, you'll only need to check the Weekly Sentiment Survey box.
I will send out the survey some time on Friday and display the results each Monday night on the message board and in Tuesday's comments. Thanks to all of those who have joined already and thanks in advance to our new members. And thanks to Mike for the idea. He will be keeping track of the data after I display the results.
That's all for today. Currently 100% G fund. Have a great weekend!
It's been two weeks since I started to get more defensive, and only a couple of days that I'm 100% G fund, but it isn't fun watching the market creep up without me as it climbs that wall of worry. It's much worse to be in the market when it is going down, but it's a close second to watch it go up from the sidelines.
The charts I am displaying below may be considered no better than an astrological or Ouija Board prediction, but take a look again at this 2005 to 1994 comparison.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com
It's uncanny and I can't help but be intrigued by the similarity. In 1994 that "new short term high" was made on June 15. Yesterday, June 16, the S&P 500 made the "new short term high". If what came next in 1994 plays out again, I'll have no regrets about being on the sidelines.
Of course it is unlikely to play out in a day to day comparison, but it has to get your attention as a possibility. These charts are not just stock prices. They are pictures of a combination of economic conditions, psychology, and valuations. 1994 had a very similar situation in all those respects as 2005 and people repeat actions when similar situations present themselves. If that is true, this rally's days could be numbered. Either that or the market will serve me a nice slice of humble pie.
Those wobbly legs of the market (psychology and monetary conditions) have me more defensive than I'd like to be. I have to trust those indicators because they are a lot smarter, and less emotional, than I am.
Administrative Note: I have started the TSP Talk Weekly Sentiment Survey which will be a poll sent via email each Friday asking you one question; Are you bullish, bearish or neutral for the market in the coming week? If you want to be a part of this, click here ... Join the Weekly Sentiment Survey and input your email address. When the confirmation page comes up, there will be two boxes on the left side. One to join the Weekly Survey, and one to join the email alert list. Choose the box of the list you wish to be added to. If you are already on the email alert list, you'll only need to check the Weekly Sentiment Survey box.
I will send out the survey some time on Friday and display the results each Monday night on the message board and in Tuesday's comments. Thanks to all of those who have joined already and thanks in advance to our new members. And thanks to Mike for the idea. He will be keeping track of the data after I display the results.
That's all for today. Currently 100% G fund. Have a great weekend!
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