Market Comments May 29, 2009  Current TSP Share Prices

Today's Comments (Short Term Outlook)                            Printer  friendly

3 for 3 The Dow put in its third triple digit day of the week yesterday.  Plus 194-points on Tuesday, down 173 on Wednesday, and up 104-points Thursday.  I can hardly wait to see what happens today.  can we make it 4 for 4? The S&P 500 has been all over the place during the last couple of weeks.  Taking a look at the last six trading days on the right side of the chart below, we had...                  Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk 1) An outside reversal day that closed near the day's low.  That is a negative for stocks and you'd expect selling to continue the following day. 2) Which it did, but there was a late rally taking the S&P well off of the lows. 3) Day 3 was an inside day, which has a tendency to be followed by more movement in the direction it had prior to the inside day. 4) The market opened lower, making a lower low, but we see an explosive rally by the close giving us another outside day - This one bullish so we'd expect more upside action... 5)  Which is how it opened on day 5, but stocks sold off to close near the lows, but with a higher high, and a higher low, we had an uptrend day. 6) Day six started negatively as we put in a lower low and a lower high giving us a negative trend day, but the S&P closed near highs and up another 1.5%.  What does this tell us?  Not much, but it seems the market does not seem to know where to go, anymore than we know which way it will go. There is resistance above and the indicators are mixed.  Sentiment is getting more bullish but not extreme, although we did get a reiteration of a bear market sell signal for next week with a 1.07 bulls to bears ratio in our TSP Talk Sentiment Survey yesterday.  Bulls 44%, bears 41%. Next week we start a new month and a new set of TSP interfund transfers.  The first week of June is historically strong, but as you can see, there can be  rough spots throughout the month.   You can also see that June is not one of the better months, at least during the 56 year period between 1950 and 2005.  But then again, May isn't so hot either, and it did just fine so far (one day to go) this year.                                       Charts provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com That's all for today.  Thanks for reading!   Have a great weekend and we'll see you back here on Monday.