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| Today's Commentary (Short Term Outlook) |
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Minor rebound More debt issues out of Europe, this time Spain, but the market shook it off and was able to close in positive territory, recovering a portion of Tuesday's large losses. The TSP funds were mixed hit hard as the C-fund gained 0.66%, the S-fund added 0.25%, while the I-fund lost another 0.49%, and the F-fund dropped 0.31%. The S&P 500 rallied up to the 20-day EMA and that makes today's action important. The bulls will like to see the S&P 500 recapture that 20-day EMA as soon as possible, but if it cannot, the 50-day EMA could be the next target.  Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk There was PMO sell signal generated, and unfortunately, it looks similar to the one created in January, just as the correction began. I have a knack for buying the wrong pullback and I am concerned of course, that buying here could be buying at the start of another correction. Regardless, I have to consider buying - especially if we can get a test of the 50-day EMA this week or next. Bond yields rallied off of the rising support and the newly filled gap area, but they have already run into overhead resistance of the declining trading channel.  Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk The dollar has rallied back to the top of its recent ascending trading channel, but started to pull back as soon as it did so.  Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk I think all
three of the charts above will move in unison, in that if stocks rally,
look for the dollar to move down, and bond yields to break above that
declining trading channel (bond prices and the F-fund would go down).
This would likely benefit the I-fund the most in the short-term. |