Market Comments April 1, 2009 TSP Fund share prices as of: 03/31/09 Fund - G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund 12.8219 12.5961 9.2925 10.9310 12.0813 $  Change - 0.0010 0.0151 0.1203 0.1712 0.2290 % Chg day - +0.01% +0.12% +1.31% +1.59% +1.93% % Chg wk - +0.03% +0.24% -2.22% -1.99% -2.57% % Chg mon - +0.24% +1.38% +8.81% +8.64% +7.20% % Chg 2009 - +0.64% +0.12% -10.94% -10.45% -15.25%   L2040 L2030 L2020 L2010 L Income 11.2955 11.5860 11.9943 13.4430 12.5665 $  Change - 0.1423 0.1280 0.1110 0.0609 0.0394 % Chg day - +1.28% +1.12% +0.93% +0.46% +0.31% % Chg wk - -1.82% -1.58% -1.32% -0.61% -0.41% % Chg mon - +7.08% +6.30% +5.35% +2.82% +2.06% % Chg 2009 - -9.56% -8.22% -6.72% -2.82% -1.70%

Today's Comments (Short Term Outlook)

Another wild week Just another wild day on Wall Street as early the Tuesday trading saw the Dow gain back 200 of the 250-points it lost on Monday, but ended the day up "just" 87-points or 1.2%, while the TSP stock funds picked up 1.3% to 1.9% on the day. So, the good news was the Dow was able to close up 87-points but some of that came with the help of end of the quarter window dressing, as money managers buy up the stocks that did well this quarter and particularly in March to make their portfolios more attractive.  The bad new is that once the closing bell sounded, and the books closed on the 1st quarter results, the stock futures moved straight down again and the Dow futures are down over 100-points as I write this late Tuesday night.  I am guessing that some of that is because of Obama's statement about bankruptcy probably being the best option for GM, but it also has to do with end of the quarter window dressing in a bear market. Volume was light again and the S&P 500 almost filled the gap created at Monday's open, but there are still a few points open and it may or may not get filled, but those gaps do tend to act as magnets.                    Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk Someone asked me yesterday why gaps get filled, and the answer is both technical, as in technical analysis, and psychological.  The technical analysis part is a self-fulfilling prophesy in that sellers will step in once the gap is filled, knowing they can act as resistance. The psychological part comes from the traders who may have lost money during the gap down.  Let's say the S&P 500 closed on a Friday at 800, and on the following Monday it open at 780, and never got higher than 785 during the day.  Now there is a gap between 800 and 785.  The thinking by many investors is, if I can just get back the to where I was on Friday, I will sell.  So, the S&P 500 hits 800-801 and the relieved investors settle for that, take profits, and the selling pulls the index back down.  Yesterday's action didn't do much to change the indicators.  The market is still on the overbought side, but off their highest levels from last week.  The sentiment surveys are still sitting near even (bulls and bears nearly equal) which is on the bearish side for stocks during a bear market. As the title says, we have already started on the wild side this week, and with the jobs report on Friday and earnings season kicking off next Monday, the volatility should continue. The March jobs report is anticipating a loss of 656,000 jobs; about what we saw the prior month.  And obviously the earnings reports will be key to the eventual direction the market takes for the next few months. So, fasten your seatbelts, it could be a wild ride.  Based on the charts and indicators, I am anticipating the next move to be down, but the strength of the recent rally has surprised me, even though we knew 20% gains are not uncommon during bear market rallies.            That's all for today.   Thanks for reading and we'll see you tomorrow!                        Administrative Note:  Beginning this week we will be offering a new premium service called The TSP & Economic Report.  Access to the service will be available free of charge during the month of April.  The author, Ken Bateman (or "Scribbler") joined our message board at the end of 2008 and asked if he could start a blog.  It was obvious that Scribbler had knack for not only writing, but also economics; something that has been missing from TSP Talk.  Ken is a graduate of the United States Military Academy at West Point, with a Bachelors of Science in Economics and a Master's of Business Administration from Troy University.  He also happens to have an +12.6% return so far in 2009 as a participant in our AutoTracker returns contest.. The twice weekly newsletter is now available.  It will be free for the month of April, but to gain access you will need to set up a free premium service login, if you don't already have one, as you will have to login to gain access.  Please click here for more information.