Market Comments April 16, 2009   TSP Fund share prices as of: 04/15/09 Fund - G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund 12.8352 12.6889 9.9354 11.8904 13.1409 $  Change - 0.0008 0.0182 0.1224 0.1628 0.0131 % Chg day - +0.01% +0.14% +1.25% +1.39% +0.10% % Chg wk - +0.14% +0.97% +4.55% +6.62% +5.97% % Chg mon - +0.10% +0.74% +6.92% +8.78% +8.77% % Chg 2009 - +0.74% +0.86% -4.78% -2.59% -7.82%   L2040 L2030 L2020 L2010 L Income 12.0261 12.2420 12.5598 13.7426 12.7735 $  Change - 0.0934 0.0840 0.0709 0.0379 0.0267 % Chg day - +0.78% +0.69% +0.57% +0.28% +0.21% % Chg wk - +4.53% +3.99% +3.33% +1.60% +1.23% % Chg mon - +6.47% +5.66% +4.71% +2.23% +1.65% % Chg 2009 - -3.71% -3.02% -2.33% -0.65% -0.09%

Today's Comments (Short Term Outlook)                               Printer  friendly

Late rally Stocks bounced around most of the day but a late surge in the final hour gave the Dow a 109-point gain, and yet another 1% plus move for the major indices. The Fed Beige Book report that was released at about 3 PM ET, gave investors some good news as it indicated that the economy may be showing signs of stabilizing.           The S&P 500 did bounce off of that old resistance, now support line, and keeps its recent uptrend intact.  The 810 to 830 level seems to be an important area for the bulls to hold.  While that holds, the ball is in the bulls' court, but with these 1% to 3% moves becoming common-place, things can turn on a dime.  Not to scare you out if you are invested in stocks, but if and when the turn comes, it may be very swift.                   Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk The recent Investor's Intelligence Survey, just one of the few we follow, showed the bulls coming in at 43%, and the bears 34%, for a bulls to bears ratio of 1.27 to 1, moving over the important bear market reading of 1.0 to 1.  As you can see below, things got a little shaky the last time we saw a reading this high.                    Charts provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk We are holding the TSP Talk Sentiment Survey on the home page today.  What do you think the market will do next week?  Being an options expiration week, a big down day followed by a big up day (or vice versa) is typical.  For many years options week has had a positive bias, but as I mentioned yesterday, the last several months have been hard on the bulls during options week.  Options week can be very unpredictable as traders and money mangers play their games jockeying for position.  That's one reason why the Monday after options week can be a big mover for stocks.  It's like the move that should have happened the week before, being unleashed.  What does this mean?  It just means that what we see over the next couple of days may be more confusing than anything else.  That's all I have for today.  Thanks for reading!  See you tomorrow. Administrative Note:  Access to Scribbler's TSP & Economic Report premium service will be available free of charge during the month of April.  Please click here for more information.