Market Comments April 15, 2009   TSP Fund share prices as of: 04/14/09 Fund - G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund 12.8344 12.6707 9.8130 11.7276 13.1278 $  Change - 0.0009 0.0369 -0.1995 -0.3147 -0.0091 % Chg day - +0.01% +0.29% -1.99% -2.61% -0.07% % Chg wk - +0.13% +0.83% +3.26% +5.16% +5.87% % Chg mon - +0.10% +0.59% +5.60% +7.29% +8.66% % Chg 2009 - +0.74% +0.72% -5.95% -3.93% -7.91%   L2040 L2030 L2020 L2010 L Income 11.9327 12.1580 12.4889 13.7047 12.7468 $  Change - -0.1504 -0.1345 -0.1118 -0.0560 -0.0381 % Chg day - -1.24% -1.09% -0.89% -0.41% -0.30% % Chg wk - +3.72% +3.27% +2.75% +1.32% +1.02% % Chg mon - +5.64% +4.94% +4.12% +1.95% +1.43% % Chg 2009 - -4.46% -3.68% -2.88% -0.93% -0.29%

Today's Comments (Short Term Outlook)                               Printer  friendly

Earnings Stocks pulled back yesterday after a weaker than expected retail sales report, a PPI report showing producer prices decreased more than estimated, and the pullback in Goldman Sachs' stock after their earnings report. Yesterday I mentioned that I thought there was something fishy about the Goldman Sachs earnings report, that appeared on the surface to be extremely strong as they beat estimates by over 100%, but apparently the market agreed with me as the stock dropped 12% on the day. The S&P 500 pulled back on higher than average volume yesterday, but again stayed above the old resistance line, which is trying to act as support.  The market remains overbought, and the indicators and the chart would seem to indicate that we're overdue due for a pullback.  The bulls have been in control and the fear of missing the rally seems to have fueled the upward movement.  If things get dicey, will buyers step up or will there be a rush for the exit to preserve recent profits?                   Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk With earnings season upon us, you can see what has happened to earnings as a result of this economic slow down.  If you wondered why the stock market dropped 50% from its highs, here is your answer.  Earnings are the life blood for the share prices of publicly traded companies.  Earnings will have to more than quadruple just to get us back to where they were a year or so ago.                  The put/call ratios of the dumb money (CBOE and Equity) are starting back up again after their recent pullback, and the trend remains firmly up (overly bullish), which tends to be bearish for the market.  The smart money of the OEX put/call ratio, which has been less effective this year, is showing that they (the smart money) are getting more bearish - More so than any time since early January.  The OEX ratio is not so much of a contrarian indicator as the other two since it is supposed to be the "smart money".                    Charts provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk This is an options expiration week, and these weeks have had a slightly positive bias overall, but not over the last several months.  According to SentimenTrader.com:  "From Tuesday's close through Friday's, the S&P was positive 61% of the time since '82, but the last six have all been badly negative, averaging a wicked -4.2%.  All except one lost more than -2% (and that one was -1.9%)."                                                                                             Data provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com, analysis by TSP Talk Intel reported earnings after the close last night and the stock dropped on the news, as did the market futures.  This all adds up to an interesting test for the current rally.  We all realize that a pullback is due, but the $64,000 question (not adjusted for inflation) is whether it will be a buyable pullback, or possibly the start of another leg down as we discussed on Monday. That's all I have for today.  Thanks for reading!  See you back here tomorrow. Administrative Note:  Access to Scribbler's TSP & Economic Report premium service will be available free of charge during the month of April.  Please click here for more information.