Market Comments March 3, 2009 TSP Fund share prices as of: 03/03/09 Fund - G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund 12.7926 12.4689 8.1444 9.4855 10.6648 $  Change - 0.0019 0.0448 -0.3959 -0.5765 -0.6054 % Chg day - +0.01% +0.36% -4.64% -5.73% -5.37% % Chg wk - +0.01% +0.36% -4.64% -5.73% -5.37% % Chg mon - +0.01% +0.36% -4.64% -5.73% -5.37% % Chg 2009 - +0.41% -0.89% -21.95% -22.29% -25.19%   L2040 L2030 L2020 L2010 L Income 10.1156 10.5080 11.0457 12.8889 12.1944 $  Change - -0.4330 -0.3912 -0.3396 -0.1856 -0.1187 % Chg day - -4.10% -3.59% -2.98% -1.42% -0.96% % Chg wk - -4.10% -3.59% -2.98% -1.42% -0.96% % Chg mon - -4.10%% -3.59% -2.98% -1.42% -0.96% % Chg 2009 - -19.01% -16.76% -14.10% -6.82% -4.61%

Today's Comments (Short Term Outlook)                             Printer  friendly

The pain is rising Yesterday I posted the chart of the cycle of emotions and even though I have not been in stocks the past two trading days, I am feeling the pain of those who were.  I was physically exhausted after the market closed yesterday, after the 300-point sell-off. The TSP stock funds lost another 4% to 6%, and as if January and February weren't bad enough, it was the worst start to the month of March, ever.  In less than 60 days, the stock funds have shed another 22% to 25%.  Incredible. Right now, the only positive I can glean from this is that it is getting so bad, that a rally is an almost certainty over the next few days.  The problem is, the old support of 741 for the S&P 500 should now act as resistance.  Still, that is a 6% rally from where the market closed yesterday.  If that can be taken out, 800 is next and now we're talking a 14% rally.  But before we get ahead of ourselves, we are still staring down the barrel of a market that has not yet found a reason to rally.  When it does, the rally will likely be explosive, but we don't know when that will be. We have seen a series of these breakdowns on very high volume, followed by a sharp rally, and another leg down.  The recent 7.5 billion share day on Friday could be getting us closer to the exhaustion drop and a snap-back rally.  But don't get greedy.  We are still in a bear market and rallies need to be sold.                    Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk It's no surprise that the indicators are at extremes, or close to them, so again, it's just a matter of time, although that doesn't mean it can't get worse first.  The dollar made a new high yesterday as the economic news out of the EAFE countries continues to "out-bad" the U.S. news.  The dollar is not strong.  It is all relative to the other currencies.  How can the dollar be strong when we are printing and spending money like we are? The February jobs report is being reported this Friday and you have to think that the worst possible scenario is already priced in.  Perhaps that will trigger a "buy the bad news" rally. That's all for today.  Thanks for reading.  See you back here tomorrow!