Market Comments March 31, 2009 TSP Fund share prices as of: 03/30/09 Fund - G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund 12.8209 12.5810 9.1722 10.7598 11.8523 $  Change - 0.0031 0.0145 -0.3309 -0.3928 -0.5481 % Chg day - +0.02% +0.12% -3.48% -3.52% -4.42% % Chg wk - +0.02% +0.12% -3.48% -3.52% -4.42% % Chg mon - +0.24% +1.26% +7.40% +6.94% +5.16% % Chg 2009 - +0.63% +0.00% -12.10% -11.85% -16.86%   L2040 L2030 L2020 L2010 L Income 11.1532 11.4580 11.8833 13.3821 12.5271 $  Change - -0.3512 -0.3145 -0.2714 -0.1439 -0.0908 % Chg day - -3.05% -2.67% -2.23% -1.06% -0.72% % Chg wk - -3.05% -2.67% -2.23% -1.06% -0.72% % Chg mon - +5.73% +5.13% +4.37% +2.35% +1.74% % Chg 2009 - -10.70% -9.23% -7.59% -3.26% -2.01%

Today's Comments (Short Term Outlook)

Pullback or another leg down? Stocks were hit hard yesterday as the Dow dropped over 250-points and the TSP stock funds shed 3.5% to 4.4% on the day.  "They" are saying it is because of the GM debacle, but the charts were telling us it was coming. The S&P 500 gapped down at the open, leaving an open gap at 814.43.  Volume has been noticeably light during the last two trading days while the Dow lost 400-points, so if you are looking for something positive, that could be it.  Or it could mean the selling has just not accelerating yet.  Either way, the chart is heading down after nearing resistance, and with little support below.                    Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk As we've mentioned, our Sentiment Survey had gotten a little overly bullish (for a bear market) last week and gave a sell signal, and we have evidence that the "dumb money" had become very bullish (which is bearish for stocks). The 10-day moving average of the CBOE and Equity put/call ratios had become very extended to the bullish side, and are now turning down from those levels.                    Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk The Rydex Cash Flow Ratio had also become very bullish as the bears funds to bull funds plus cash ratio hit 0.75.  The lower the ratio (higher in direction on the chart) means the investors are more bullish than when you see higher ratios (lower on the chart).                    Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk The last time it was at the 0.75 level was in early January, and that didn't work out too well for investors. So, being down 400-points in a couple days could mean a little relief rally in the short-term, but I would certainly consider jumping back into defensive mode if you made any money in the stock funds over the last few weeks - before it becomes too late.                             Administrative Note:  Starting this week we will be offering a new premium service called The TSP & Economic Report.  Access to the service will be available free of charge during the month of April.  The author, Ken Bateman (or "Scribbler") joined our message board at the end of 2008 and asked if he could start a blog.  It was obvious that Scribbler had knack for not only writing, but also economics; something that has been missing from TSP Talk.  Ken is a graduate of the United States Military Academy at West Point, with a Bachelors of Science in Economics and a Master's of Business Administration from Troy University.  He also happens to have an +11% return so far in 2009 as a participant in our AutoTracker returns contest. The twice weekly newsletter is now available.  It will be free for the month of April, but to gain access you will need to set up a free premium service login, if you don't already have one, as you will have to login to gain access.  Please click here for more information.                                        That's all for today.  Thanks for reading.  See you tomorrow!