Market Comments March 10, 2009 TSP Fund share prices as of: 03/09/09 Fund - G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund 12.7996 12.4323 7.8673 9.0631 10.2903 $  Change - 0.0030 -0.0354 -0.0798 -0.1232 -0.2532 % Chg day - +0.02% -0.28% -1.00% -1.34% -2.40% % Chg wk - +0.02% -0.28% -1.00% -1.34% -2.40% % Chg mon - +0.07% +0.07% -7.88% -9.93% -8.69% % Chg 2009 - +0.46% -1.18% -24.60% -25.75% -27.81%   L2040 L2030 L2020 L2010 L Income 9.8133 10.2343 10.8084 12.7587 12.1112 $  Change - -0.1224 -0.1108 -0.0977 -0.0539 -0.0340 % Chg day - -1.23% -1.07% -0.90% -0.42% -0.28% % Chg wk - -1.23% -1.07% -0.90% -0.42% -0.28% % Chg mon - -6.97%% -6.10% -5.07% -2.42% -1.64% % Chg 2009 - -21.43% -18.92% -15.95% -7.76% -5.27%

Today's Comments (Short Term Outlook)                             Printer  friendly

Too many saying we're too bearish? After an up and down session, stocks ended the day on the downside again with the Dow dropping about 80-points, and the C, S, and I funds losing 1%, 1.3%, and 2.4% respectively.  The S&P 500 continues its decline and does so with very little relief.  Incredibly we haven't seen two consecutive positive closes in almost a month now.  Many of us had expected a rally at least back up to the breakdown level of 740, but that hasn't materialized yet.  What gives?                    Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk The Nasdaq, which has been holding up a little better than the other major indices, finally saw its first close below the November lows yesterday.  Many investors were hoping that the Nasdaq would be the leader that would produce a successful double bottom, and the rest of the market would follow, so yesterday's close was not what they wanted to see.  Let's see if it can pass the 3-day test - that is, get back above support within 3 days.                    Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk I watch a lot of CNBC, not really for investment advice, but because I can't get enough market talk, which you get along with news and some useful sentiment information.  The latest talk from some of the hosts and commentators is about how bearish everyone has become, and how this should be a good sign for stocks.  How talk of a Dow 5000 is a sign that we won't get that low.  They seem to be taking the contrarian out of the contrarian indicators. In other words, yes, the sentiment has been very bearish, but if everyone talks about how bullish this should be for stocks, doesn't that take a little away from its contrarian effectiveness?  Similarly, if a magazine posts some big bearish headline, and everyone says that this is a bullish sign, isn't that less bullish than it used to be when that type of thing spooked the commentators? I could be wrong, but there has to be some reason why the market won't rally with a record bearish sentiment percentage of 70%.  The truth is, the herd does not seem to be as bearish as they are letting on.  We talked a little about this yesterday as well, demonstrated by the put/call ratios. Bottom line, the market is not in good shape fundamentally or technically.  There is some hope from a sentiment perspective, although there are holes there as well.  The market is forward looking and right now it is looking forward to lowered earnings and estimates, no real answers for companies that are on the brink of failure, a housing market that is having a tough time stabilizing, a credit card and auto loan industry that could be the next shoe to drop.  At the same time, Washington is working on overhauling healthcare, embryonic stem cell research, adjusting tax and deductions rates, including the cap-and-trade plan to limit greenhouse gas emissions which will be a "pretty regressive" tax, according to Warren Buffett.  I wish they would focus on the economy for now, and worry about social programs when the smoke clears, before the rest of everyone's retirement accounts go up in smoke. That's all for today.  Thanks for reading.  We'll see you back here tomorrow!