Market Comments February 4, 2009 TSP Fund share prices as of: 02/03/09 Fund - G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund 12.7666 12.4811 9.7024 11.3607 12.7541 $  Change - 0.0009 -0.0430 0.1506 0.0882 0.3401 % Chg day - +0.01% -0.34% +1.58% +0.78% +2.74% % Chg wk - +0.02% +0.07% +1.52% +1.37% +1.59% % Chg mon - +0.02% +0.07% +1.52% +1.37% +1.59% % Chg 2009 - +0.20% -0.79% -7.01% -6.93% -10.53%   L2040 L2030 L2020 L2010 L Income 11.6743 11.9074 12.2526 13.5334 12.6028 $  Change - 0.1600 0.1434 0.1259 0.0670 0.0420 % Chg day - +1.39% +1.22% +1.04% +0.50% +0.33% % Chg wk - +1.24% +1.09% +0.92% +0.46% +0.32% % Chg mon - +1.24% +1.09% +0.92% +0.46% +0.32% % Chg 2009 - -6.53% -5.67% -4.71% -2.16% -1.42%

Today's Comments (Short Term Outlook)                             Printer  friendly

Hanging on, but... Stocks rallied yesterday once again holding onto the support we have been watching.  The wedge formation the S&P 500 is now in is not bullish, so the rally could be throwing us a bone - to get out. There was a large disparity in the returns of the stock funds yesterday with the C-fund picking up 1.6%, the S-fund gaining 0.8% and, with the help of a weak dollar, the I-fund jumped 2.7%.   Bonds gave back much of Monday's gains with a 0.3% loss on Tuesday. It's early, but the S&P 500 is playing out the scenario we laid out yesterday.  We've had a test of the lower support of the wedge, and we could see a move as high as 910 and still remain in the wedge, but I am still expecting the 20-day moving average (851 as of yesterday's close) to be troublesome for the rally.                     Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk Here is the chart I posted yesterday showing the 4-point pattern I noticed playing out, and a move to 850 would complete it.  If it is going to continue, that could be a short-term top before a test of the November low kicks in.                       Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk The I-fund rallied nearly 3% with the dollar dropping over 1% yesterday, as it takes a breather from its recent rally.  Sure, the dollar is due for a short-term pullback, but I think it needs to make a move back toward the November highs or it could be starting a new downtrend.                        Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk It's way too early to say, but looking at some charts of the commodities, it appears that they are forming a decent bottom and are ready to start some sort of longer term move higher, and a lower weaker dollar would play right into that. I realize that is the cart pulling the horse, but like stocks, sometimes the charts tell us what is going to happen, and the news and actual events fill in the details later. I am still playing that F-fund and it is hanging on, but I am not in love with this position.  I actually do not like bonds looking out much further.  I just thought that we could see an oversold rally.  I'm looking for the exit. That's all for today.  Thanks for reading.  See you tomorrow!