Market Comments February 26, 2009 TSP Fund share prices as of: 02/25/09 Fund - G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund 12.7878 12.4376 8.8831 10.3182 11.3129 $  Change - 0.0010 -0.0557 -0.0934 -0.1667 -0.2259 % Chg day - +0.01% -0.45% -1.04% -1.59% -1.96% % Chg wk - +0.04% -0.59% -0.66% -1.05% -3.00% % Chg mon - +0.18% -0.28% -7.05% -7.93% -9.89% % Chg 2009 - +0.37% -1.14% -14.87% -15.47% -20.64%   L2040 L2030 L2020 L2010 L Income 10.7749 11.1062 11.5652 13.1768 12.3812 $  Change - -0.1311 -0.1175 -0.1018 -0.0560 -0.0362 % Chg day - -1.20% -1.05% -0.87% -0.42% -0.29% % Chg wk - -1.19% -1.02% -0.85% -0.38% -0.25% % Chg mon - -6.56% -5.71% -4.74% -2.19% -1.44% % Chg 2009 - -13.73% -12.02% -10.06% -4.74% -3.15%

Today's Comments (Short Term Outlook)                             Printer  friendly

Wild day Stocks opened sharply lower yesterday but managed a strong midday rally, before the steam ran out and the Dow settled down 80-points.  The TSP funds were down 1% to 2%, as the I-fund lagged again because of the strength in the dollar.  Bonds pulled back as well. Had the strength come earlier in the day, I may have moved back to the sidelines, but instead the strength came mostly after the TSP deadline so I am still invested.  The S&P 500 did manage a higher high, and a higher low over Tuesday's session and that was something I was hoping to see, as that starts an uptrend - even if only a short-term trend.  You can see below that some temporary reversals come as "V" bottoms, and others consolidate for a few days before picking a direction.  The higher high, higher low gives us at least some temporary hope that we could see a move higher from here.                      Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk The charts still show us a possible move to 800-825 but, because we are in a nasty bear market, we have to be prepared to deal with a sharp move lower that takes out the 741 level.  Unfortunately, because of our TSP deadline, we could be caught in the market for a day or two after a breakdown, so staying defensive is not a bad plan.  I continue to play the bear market rules and will sell the rallies at some point. The CBOE and Equity put/call ratios of the "dumb money" have pulled back and there may even be some support in the indicator.  That would lead us to believe that we could see some short-term upside action, although the Equity put/call ratio is actually in no man's land.                    Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk The dollar refuses to give it.  It has been flirting with the November highs above and the rising support below.  Something is going to have to give fairly soon - either a breakout to new highs, or a break of support with a lot of room down below.                     Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk The I-fund will benefit if there is a breakdown, and suffer if there is a breakout. As February draws to a close, March's seasonality should give the bulls some optimism as the first half of the month is quite strong historically.  That would play into the oversold rebound scenario, but of course it is never that easy.  We are in a bear market and this is not a "normal" year for stocks                               Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com That's all for today.  Thanks for reading.  See you tomorrow!